Extending the US Lead in Wind

The US now has a total wind power capacity of 28.2 GW, enough to provide ~2% of our electricity demand. The growth widens our lead over Germany as the world’s top wind power producer. Another 3.4 GW are under construction for later in the year, so it looks likely 2009 will witness at least the second largest growth after 2008′s record 8.5 GW.

TX Advances and Smaller States Emerge

Texas installed the most new wind, increasing its huge cumulative total to almost 8 GW (more than double 2nd place Iowa). As I wrote over the last several weeks, New York and Kansas joined the 1 GW club as aggregate deployers #7 and #8, with Illinois poised to join this quarter.

The quickest percentage growth was Indiana’s 75% to .531 GW, Maine’s 55% to .104 GW, Nebraska’s 53% to .153 GW, Idaho’s 49% to .147 GW, and New York’s 34% to 1.261 GW.

Top Wind States by Percentage Shift

The states with the top wind share capability in their electricity mix shuffled a bit as their percentages grew [these data was revised Thursday, April 30th to be conservative].

1. Iowa (over 18% of its electricity from wind)
2. North Dakota (just below 18%)
3. Wyoming (~15%)
4. Oregon (~8%, up from #6)
5. Minnesota (~7.5%, down from #4)
6. Kansas (~7%, up from #9)
7. South Dakota & New Mexico (~6.5%, up from # 11 & down from #5)

9.   Texas (just under 6.5%, down from #8)

10. Colorado (~6%, down from #7)

The national average was pulled up to ~1.8% by my calculations. We’ll see if that pans out in the EIA electricity reports during the months ahead.

The percentage top 10 will remain mostly intact during the rest of 2009, with the possibility of Texas climbing up even though its electricity demand base is so high. Wyoming may hit 18% and North Dakota may pass Iowa for the top spot. I’ll let you know as the news happens here at SETenergy.org

Onwards in the Sustainable Energy Transition-

Composition Changes: Lower Carbon Intensity

On top of the lower overall consumption of electricity is a shift toward lower carbon intensity of the electricity generated. This shift was strongest in February when dirtier coal consumption for electricity fell 13.4% while demand for cleaner natural gas increased 2.4% and wind climbed significantly as well. The low price of natural gas is driving the shift from coal, as I wrote in February may happen. This could lead to coal’s share of electricity falling below 48% in 2009, a continuation of coal’s share decline of the last ten years described a couple weeks back.

Carbon Emissions Poised to Fall 3+%

When you add up fossil fuel consumption in early 2009, you get a picture of emissions in freefall. Rather than the 2.5% emissions drop I described a few days ago from the April EIA Short Term Energy Outlook, emissions from energy use are currently falling at a 5% rate. Coal use is falling ~8%, natural gas for electricity is down ~4%, and oil demand is more than 4% below 2008 levels.

Since it is possible that weather (a hot summer and cold early winter) and a late 2009 economic recovery may bring emissions levels closer to those in 2008, for now I will say that emissions are poised to fall more than 3% this year. But keep the higher 4-5% range in mind as possible – which would bring US emissions to just ~6.5% above 1990 levels.

Bottom Line: US carbon dioxide emissions are poised to fall dramatically in 2009. The more we deploy efficiency and renewables, the faster we can send emissions down and keep them down as our economic recovery revs up in late 2009/2010. I’ll keep you updated at SETenergy.org as this develops during the months ahead.