Pump prices are about to hit $2.70 per gallon nationwide, and oil has remained above $70 per barrel for several days. Most of the increase has come on expectations of economic recovery – like today’s increase in projection for China’s 2009 growth to 7.2% rather than 6.5% by the World Bank. But even more positive economic news will struggle to increase prices much more unless fuel inventories fall from (more…)
Posts Tagged ‘supply’
Oil prices rise, but supply still high
Thursday, June 18th, 2009US Oil Output Down: Noise or Beginning of New Trend?
Wednesday, April 8th, 2009
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its weekly petroleum report today and it continues to point to ample supplies of crude oil and related products. But domestic crude oil production fell for the first week in a long time. Is this just a blip or have we begun the downward slide in crude oil production due to (more…)
Natural Gas Recovering on Prospects of Lower Supply
Friday, March 20th, 2009
The price of natural gas increased significantly the last couple of days. And it’s not just because of a weaker dollar. The US natural gas rig count fell another 3% last week to 857, more than 46% below their September peak. It is now at a number that threatens (more…)
Another source of non-OPEC oil output growth disappears
Friday, February 20th, 2009
As I’ve said many times, the crucial role Russia played since the late 1990s as the main growth driver for non-OPEC oil production will be sorely missed. But the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) forecast three countries would step up in 2009 to reverse the 2008 fall in production: the US, Brazil, and Azerbaijan. Now one of these countries says their 2009 output will be flat. (more…)
Energy in 2009 Part III: Coal Outlook
Friday, January 2nd, 2009
Coal was almost as volatile as oil and natural gas in 2008, with its global trade price down more than 50% since the summer. While North American natural gas and global oil prices are poised for rebound since they have fallen below the higher marginal cost of production, coal production costs remain below current prices by most accounts. Therefore, coal prices have substantial room to fall if economic conditions continue to deteriorate. Below are some thoughts on coal supply and demand as we all prepare for the year ahead. (more…)
Energy in 2009 Part II: A Look at Natural Gas
Wednesday, December 31st, 2008After yesterday’s post on the wide range projection for oil next year, I wanted to share some thoughts on natural gas in 2009. I’ll start with the supply side, which has been more volatile than oil. Then I’ll go over some potential trends in demand.
The weekly EIA natural gas storage report came out today. And while last week’s inventory drop was 40% above average due to some cold weather, levels remain (more…)
Oil in 2009: Where are we headed?
Tuesday, December 30th, 2008
Before we get deep into the coming year, I would like to share some views on potential global energy shifts in 2009. Today, I’ll start with our biggest energy source — oil.
Looking back at 2008, oil has been perhaps the wildest ride. Most analysts had no clue oil could rise to its July record ~$147 per barrel and then were equally caught off guard by the recent lows below $40. It is projected that 2008 will be the first year with a global demand decrease since the early 1980s. So, what shifts can we try to anticipate in the year ahead? (more…)