I spent much of the day working on a model that pulls the relevant variables of the oil market together to have predictive success for the prices of the last decade and a half. Once the model comes together, it will hopefully give some insight on the trajectory of prices for the next decade and a half. I believe this is absolutely crucial and seriously missing. The EIA, World Bank, CERA and many other mainstream modelers of oil prices have been woefully incorrect in their past predictions, and it makes policymakers largely blind as they try to put together energy strategies for the future. I aim to publish the report in (more…)