The Details

North Carolina currently has an electrical capacity of ~28 GW, as reported by the US Energy Information Administration State Energy Profile. The bulk of the state’s electricity comes from coal (~60%) and nuclear (~35%). The remaining ~5% is mostly hydropower, then some natural gas and a little renewable electricity (mostly biomass, since there is no  significant wind capacity installed to date and only a trace of solar (~5 MW)).

Recently, electricity consumption has been falling due to efficiency and the recession. For instance, last December demand was 2.5% below year-ago levels. With federal and state leaders focused on energy efficiency, there is a significant possibility that electricity consumption may not need to grow from now on. And that scenario is what the NC WARN report is based on.

Blackburn, the former chair of Duke University’s Economics Department, and Runkle, a NC attorney, put forth an electricity demand future based on 1% per year efficiency progress through 2023. Their scenario also has an acceleration of renewable energy deployment as called for in the state’s Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard (REPS) of 12.5% (7.5% renewables and 5% efficiency). They highlight the growing opportunities to take advantage of solar’s falling price and the state’s significant wind potential (located in the mountains, along the coast, and offshore). Coupled with a few co-generation retrofits and policies to shave peak electricity demand, these advances allow the retirement of 3.7 GW of older coal plants or as many as 7 to 9 existing plants.

The Costs

Since the plan is based on efficiency that is proven to cost less than 5-6 cents per kWh of demand reduction, this would save North Carolinians a great deal of money in the years ahead. Instead of spending tens of billions of dollars on proposed new coal and nuclear plants (potentially lifting electricity rates 50+% above today’s 7.5 cents per kWh), North Carolina can put those resources into becoming a leader in climate-friendly energy resources and thus reap the benefits of green jobs and a strengthened economy.

Energy Security: Putting NC’s Resources to Use

North Carolina has more powerful solar potential than Germany, the world leader that has over 5 GW installed to date (1,000X current NC capacity). And Interior Secretary Salazar recently bragged of the 1,000 GW wind potential offshore in the Atlantic, of which North Carolina has a sizable chunk. Harvesting these vast North Carolina resources would create many thousands of jobs and can help lead an economic recovery.

North Carolina is not a significant producer of oil, coal, or natural gas. So it’s time we begin to free ourselves of these volatile energy sources and rely more on our own resources. Within a few years, Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) can help to free us from a dependence on oil, which brought much transportation to a halt last Fall after the Gulf hurricanes.

The Climate Needs Us to Say No to New Coal

To keep our lovely coastline mostly intact, North Carolina will have to do its climate part — including avoiding new non-CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) coal capacity. Construction at Cliffside is more than 10% underway, but the project should be re-examined with a carbon constraint lens.

Our climate can’t take any more coal plants. Thanks to efficiency, we don’t need more electricity. And thanks to renewable resources available to us, we can begin to phaseout greenhouse gas emitting fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas) in the years ahead.

This Sustainable Energy Transition won’t happen in a matter of months. But we all have a role to play to make it happen through smart energy policy and habits over the next few decades as the NC WARN report begins to lay out.

Kudos to NC WARN and everyone involved in sharing this important information with us.

As we’ve mentioned before, solar is a small contributor today throughout the country and most of the world. In NC, capacity stands at less than a megawatt (MW) from scores of small systems at households around the state. But the recently passed Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard mandates 300 MW by 2021. And they are on their way toward to achieving their goal after announcing a contract to construct the biggest PV solar farm in the country, at 16 MW. It won’t be the biggest PV installation for long, as California plans a 550 MW farm within a few years. But it certainly is a great start, and can hopefully bolster the case against building more coal power plants in our growing state. Here’s to solar growth in North Carolina and other states all over the US and beyond!