Crude supplies increased to almost 14% above this time last year. Distillates (diesel and heating oil) gained slightly on 6.1% lower demand to remain way above average. Propane also benefited from low demand (down 20.9%) to sit above the average range. The only fuel below last year’s level is gasoline, which fell ~1.5% last week on demand similar to last year matched with below-normal import levels. Gasoline tanks are now ~7.4% below last year’s high level and within the historical average.

The fact that our supplies are ample even with 10% lower crude oil imports is encouraging for those of us promoting energy independence. And since it is on lower demand, there are great climate implications as well.

Here’s to us continuing this trend in the years ahead by rapidly deploying efficiency and renewables! If we don’t, we could get caught up in a zero sum game of competition amongst oil importers for declining global oil exports beyond 2010.

Onwards in the Sustainable Energy Transition-

This continues the recent production plateau just above 3 Mbd that I brought up a few weeks back to five months. Cantarell production for January was .772 Mbd, a mere 25% of Mexico’s total production after being a majority of their production a few short years ago. One bright spot is the steady rise in output of the Ku-Maloob-Zaap (KMZ) field, which just became the biggest producing field at .787 Mbd. If PeMex can keep KMZ steady and increase Chicontepec in the months ahead, we may see a slower production decline than the 9.2% of 2008.

Bottom Line: One thing is clear — the US cannot rely on oil imports from Mexico beyond 2012. The fall of Cantarell continues at alarming speed and Mexico has few fields capable to pick up the slack. Since Mexico is not alone in its decline, a transition away from foreign oil is imperative going forward — and SET encourages the US and others to use this opportunity to also mitigate climate change by employing more efficiency and renewables.