After forecasters predicted a variety of tracks for Ike these past several days, it finally ended up taking one of the worst possible paths in terms of potential damage to oil and gas infrastructure. Not only is it hitting a large swath of offshore oil and gas rigs, but it also threatens to flood and cut off electricity for the refining center of our country. Luckily for everyone, Ike wasn’t organized enough to pull together its Category 4 potential. But the storm surge and the huge swath affected by this enormous storm make it potentially devastating nonetheless. The latest National Hurricane Center track has Ike (more…)
Posts Tagged ‘Hurricane Ike’
Hurricane Ike hits oil & gas with wind and storm surge
Friday, September 12th, 2008Hurricane Ike a Huge Threat to Gasoline Supplies
Thursday, September 11th, 2008Drivers hoping for sub-$3.50 gasoline should be wary of Ike. Hurricane Ike has a minimum pressure capable of spurring Category 4 strength at ~950 mb, but the storm’s disorganization is spreading that energy across a larger area rather than focusing it on tremendous winds around the eye. So the cyclone is the size of Katrina (hurricane winds up to 115 miles away from the eye and tropical storm winds up to 275 miles!), but it’s much weaker.
It is still a serious threat to (more…)
Oil markets focus on lower demand, Hurricanes leave mark
Wednesday, September 10th, 2008The bullish weekly oil report that I predicted arrived on schedule. But the oil markets largely ignored it. Crude supplies fell 5.9 million barrels (Mb) but remain in the average range while gasoline supplies fell a huge 6.5 Mb to an extremely low level for this time of year. Hurricane Ike has strengthened and will keep Gulf production low for at least (more…)
Non-OPEC oil production pessimism increases, Hurricane Ike shifts
Tuesday, September 9th, 2008The US Energy Information (EIA) Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for the month of September came out this afternoon with more startling updates on non-OPEC oil production. They cut their prediction of non-OPEC oil production again, bringing it to 20,000 barrels per day higher than in 2007 (revised from a guess of a 900,000 barrel per day increase made just seven months ago in February’s STEO). If the estimate falls next month by a similar amount to the last seven months’ cuts, we will be looking at a repeat of the oil production decrease that (more…)
Hurricane Ike looks set to hit Gulf oil & gas
Monday, September 8th, 2008Right when oil and natural gas production would be ramping up production back to normal levels after Hurricane Gustav’s disruptions, another hurricane turns its way along Cuba toward the Gulf of Mexico. Ike hit the Bahamas with Category 4 strength before its current weaker state as a Category 2 (100 mph) storm over Cuba. But the ingredients that could make Ike a serious threat to US energy markets emerge once it has passed Cuba late Tuesday. If Ike goes over warm water with less wind shear and dry air than Gustav then (more…)
Strengthening dollar overpowers bullish oil report
Thursday, September 4th, 2008A bullish report by the EIA showing declines in inventories of crude oil, gasoline, and distillates was not enough to buck the downward trend in oil prices due to a strengthening dollar and continued weak demand picture. The dollar rose to its highest this year at ~$1.435 per euro, 10.5% stronger than the July high of $1.6038 per euro. Next week’s report will show the impact of Hurricane Gustav. Since most refineries and crude production facilities are still offline, I guestimate that the numbers will come out very bullish with losses that bring crude, gasoline, distillates and propane near record lows for this time of year. The fact that oil rigs are not as damaged as post-Katrina and Rita is very fortunate, but (more…)