Europe Continues to Dominate Current Solar Market

Germany was able to pick up the slack from Spain and grow to ~50% of the global total. Italy, the Czech Republic, and elsewhere in Europe made up another 24% of the global market.

But Europe’s 74% global share was down from over 80% in 2008. The US remained the third largest solar market (this year after Germany and Italy) at 8% of the global market. Solar installations grew a quick 36% in the US to 485 MW in 2009. Japan ranked fourth after its market more than doubled.

Solar cell production is now close to 10 GW (less than a third of wind turbine production in 2009, but its catching up). Global solar demand may approach the 10 GW milestone in 2010 as it is expected to return to white-hot growth. This growth is less dependent on subsidies since the price of solar modules fell 38% during 2009 and prices are expected to continue to decrease in 2010. This could usher in the period of affordable solar by late 2010, especially if prices for oil, natural gas, and coal continue to trend higher.

While solar won’t be as cheap an emissions reduction option as the bicycle, its ability to compete economically with fossil fuels will be greatly enhanced in the year ahead.

Onwards in the Sustainable Energy Transition-

Dennis Markatos-Soriano

Wind Tech Advances Quicker Than Fossil Energy Tech

Many fossil energy advocates who ignore the harmful global warming effects of burning oil and natural gas pretend like technological change will allow us to increase our use of these fuels forever. But the reality is that US oil reserves and production have fallen more than 15% and 20%, respectively, since the early 1990s. And at some point within the next decade or so a similar trend will likely constrain the natural gas market even though EIA estimates of its reserves have climbed ~50% since 1993. Over the same time period, the estimate of wind power potential has climbed more than 3.5 times what the Pacific Northwest Laboratory estimated in 1993. This shows that wind technology during the period has advanced much quicker than exploration and production technology for oil and natural gas. A major improvement comes from taller wind turbines today, since wind is stronger at 80 meters than at 50 meters above the ground.

The Biggest Changes

The main sources of growth for US wind power potential came in the Great Plains, which was already known to be the heart of our resource. Texas, long the largest wind power producing state, is now estimated to be the top state for wind potential after passing the Dakotas and Kansas. In fact, it is estimated that Texas can produce from wind 15X the amount of power it consumes from all electric sources today. Another twenty states can also produce so much wind power that they could become major exporters of this electricity to other states around the country. The estimate excluded wind potential in parks, urban areas and over water — so this is a major underestimate once you consider the offshore wind potential we have off the Atlantic and Pacific coasts. Even so, the 37,000 TWh per year (~365 quadrillion Btus) listed in their onshore wind power estimate is more energy than that contained in our oil and natural gas reserves combined.

Solar Energy Potential Even Larger

The estimate of solar energy potential is more than 100X that of wind power, at over 2,000 TW. So, the issue for renewable energy isn’t any lack of supply. The challenge is for us is to continue cost reductions for wind and solar to make them cheaper than their fossil energy competitors. The year 2010 could be a breakthrough period in that regard as prices for wind turbines and solar modules fall toward grid parity.

Renewables Dominance Will Take Over a Decade

Even when wind and solar are more economical, it will take some time for them to grow from their current base of ~2% of US electricity. Manufacturers of solar modules and wind turbines will have to ramp up global production capacity from current levels of ~10 GW and ~40 GW, respectively, to at least 50 GW each before these sources of electricity can take significant market share from natural gas, oil, and coal. And we will need to continue to improve energy storage capabilities and economics along with our development of a smart grid that can adjust to the intermittency of wind and sunshine for this transition to renewables to take place smoothly over the next 10-25 years.

Now we know there is plenty of renewable energy available to keep us warm, lighted, and wired throughout the 21st century once we have moved on from our dependence on fossil fuels. Let’s make 2010 a huge step in this monumental project!

Onwards in the Sustainable Energy Transition-

Dennis Markatos-Soriano

The second is a quick mention of the East Coast Greenway in an article on climate mitigation efforts on Princeton University’s campus.

Enjoy!

Global Growth Shines

The global wind power market also grew at an astounding rate — clocking a 37.5% growth rate in its annual market (37 GW vs. 27 GW in 2008). China’s annual growth became the biggest in the world at 13 GW, which makes sense due to their larger electricity demand growth. At the end of 2009, China became the 3rd largest wind energy producer after the US and Germany (35.1 GW, 25.8 GW, and 25.1 GW). China will become the 2nd biggest wind producer in 2010 and may challenge the US by 2011.

The global solar market didn’t grow as quickly due to the collapse of its top market of 2008 — Spain (~50% of the world market that year). But Germany rode to the rescue and extended its lead as the biggest solar power producer in the world (it may have passed 8 GW). Germans took advantage of a 40+% decrease in solar module prices and had record growth (becoming ~50% of the global market themselves).

In the US

As I wrote last year, wind was already replacing oil-fired electricity in 2008. In 2009, wind took some market share from the most polluting power source, coal. In the years ahead, wind and solar can provide for new electricity demand growth and then begin to take significant bites out of the market for the leading electricity sources, coal and natural gas.

At 35 GW, wind now produces ~2% of US electricity demand. At almost 2 GW, solar produces ~.1% of US electricity demand. Biomass and geothermal produce ~1.5% and hydro almost 7%. The big three power sources today are nuclear (~20%), natural gas (~23%), and coal (~45%). When you look at particular states, it is exciting to see that wind power already provides three states with more than 20% of their power needs (Wyoming, Iowa, and North Dakota). By 2023, wind could provide 20% of the whole country’s electricity and solar another 12.5% (based on growth rates of 17.6% per year for wind – half the recent rate – and 40.4% for solar – a slight pickup from the last few years).

The US Energy Information Administration predicts US demand growth for electricity at a rate of 1% per year through 2035. I personally think that rate is higher than necessary as electricity demand growth has fallen every decade since the 1950s and it only grew .4% per year in the ’00s. Increased efficiency efforts can help electricity demand stay flat or even fall, as Google presents in its Clean Energy 2030 Plan.

Trends in Europe as a Glimpse at Our Future?

Europe installed over 10 GW of wind power capacity in 2009. The continent now gets ~9% of its electricity from wind and wind was the top source of of new electrical capacity at 39%. Solar power was third at 16% after natural gas which supplied 26%. Adding hydro and biomass, renewable energy provided 61% of new capacity. Meanwhile, coal is on the decline, as over 3 GW were decommissioned. The US can accomplish this same feat of most new demand coming from renewables in 2010 and beyond.

Price Curves Favorable for Wind & Solar

The prices of wind and solar should continue to drop in 2010, as opposed to an increase in the price of oil, natural gas, and coal. This trend should help maintain swift growth from these sources and make them the new energy titans within a few more years.

The Human Toll of Fossil Fuels

As I discussed a few months back, our addiction to fossil fuels has a serious human toll (on top of inducing global warming and hurting air quality). The tragic blast at a Connecticut power plant that killed at least five people today is a grim reminder of this. Our transition to an efficient reliance on renewable energy will help to reduce such accidents in the future.

Nuclear & “Clean Coal” Not a Near-term Remedy

While Obama has been trumpeting nuclear and “clean coal” as a necessary bridge to a renewable energy future that he thinks is decades away, renewables are actually better situated to provide for us. It takes ten years to commission and build a new nuclear power plant. And carbon sequestration coal is not market-ready yet. In contrast, wind and solar are growing quickly, proven technologies, and falling in cost. Here’s to further record growth for wind and solar in 2010 — finally putting to rest any doubts that they can lead us to a new climate-friendly energy future.

Onwards in the Sustainable Energy Transition-

Dennis Markatos-Soriano

The solarbuzz.com module price survey reported industrial solar prices dropped .9% for September to fall below 20 cents per kWh for the first time. It’s price is more than 7% below that of September 2008. With commercial and residential solar prices remaining just above 25 and 35 cents per kWh, respectively, solar remains more expensive than conventional electricity in most markets. But that may change within the next three years. 

Price moves in US & Europe similar

Solar module retail prices reached a new record low in September, falling 1.4% (6 euro cents) to 4.28 euros per watt. This price has finally dropped below the record low back in 2003-04 of ~$4.33 when the dollar was stronger. Prices in the US also fell 6 cents (1.3%) to reach $4.39 per watt. 

Current Retail Price Drops Only the Beginning

The fall in retail prices of ~9% for a single module over the last year is only the beginning. On the wholesale side, solar modules are projected to fall as much as 50% this Fall from the third quarter of 2008. That leaves another 40% of retail price drops for the months ahead just to catch up. And wholesale module prices are projected by many to fall a good deal further over the next several months. One analyst recently projected the massive overcapacity of supply beyond recessionary demand should lower wholesale prices another 40% from today’s levels in 2010. This would translate into a module price below $1 per watt. He went further to predict prices per watt to approach 50 cents in 2011 — which would easily mean grid parity within two years if he were right and solar producers could do so profitably. The same analyst predicted that as many as half of the ~200 current solar producers will go bankrupt due to this massive price dive. 

Consumers & Installers Will Reap Benefits

These lower prices should translate into huge savings for consumers and solar installers in the years ahead. Lower prices will drive greater demand and help wean the solar industry off of current governmental incentives. While the profits of solar producers from First Solar to Solarworld to China Sunergy will be squeezed, the price drop will allow the Solar Age to emerge in the 2010s as solar chargers for our laptops, cell phones, and other aspects of our daily lives will become second nature.

Onwards in the sustainable energy transition-

Dennis

Bicyclists ready for a greenway

Thank you for reading the Sustainable Energy Transition (SET) blogs and being involved in our initiatives over the past 13 months!  The experience I gained working on SET efforts has been essential for me as I stayed abreast of recent changes in our energy system and their effects on climate change. After ~35,000 visits, more than 250 blogs, and scores of endorsements for our campaigns – I have found an amazing opportunity that I can’t pass up. I will be the next Executive Director of the East Coast Greenway Alliance (ECGA).

A Tangible Project to Reduce Emissions and Drive Economic Recovery

I’ve been writing about the importance of addressing climate change and oil supply insecurity for years now. Finally, I found a project to commit the next several years to do just that. I will still blog every now and then on developments in solar, wind, and energy efficiency, but my focus will be building relationships with allies up and down the east coast to deploy a bike/ped corridor that gives people a local and long-distance option for green travel that lowers transportation costs and thus supports American economic recovery.

Building on a Solid Foundation

The ECGA was founded in 1991 by 10 committed cyclists who had a vision of a bikeway/trail to connect cities up and down the East Coast. Within a few years, a growing nonprofit emerged from this interest under the leadership of co-founder Karen Votava. Karen, the other seven that came on staff, and scores of committed volunteers transformed the ECG from an idea into 600+ miles of greenway that now make up 21% of the eventual trail. A number of people have already biked this urban sister to the Appalachian trail, as on-road portions are mapped out connecting the current greenways.

It is now my task to build on the solid foundation laid out by the ECGA and its 5,000 members. By 2025, I aim for a complete off-road greenway to be a commuting and recreational path for millions of people from Florida to Maine.

We’ll Need Your Help

By 2015, we plan to have a smooth ride available for travelers from New York City to Wilmington, Delaware. And by 2020, the path from Washington, DC, to Boston should be accessible to all – while still making tremendous progress on our trail sections to the South and North of this route. To meet our ambitious goals of trail growth, we will need you to support the East Coast Greenway Alliance as a member or an ally.

Please check out our ECGA daily blog, twitter stream, and facebook page which will go live in September to keep our members and the public up-to-date on progress. If you like SET and care about global warming and the American economy, you’ll love the East Coast Greenway.

Let’s complete it together!

The Climate Ride initiative started last September with over 100 riders. This year, the ridership has more than doubled and is perfectly timed (September 26-30) to push the Senate to pass a climate bill like the House’s recent bill, the American Clean Energy & Security Act.

Pablo and Gabrielle are the two riders representing North Carolina, and I have no doubt they will represent my native state well. Pablo has been a great athlete since his childhood in Costa Rica. We played many fun soccer games throughout college and afterward. And they both just finished an impressive triathlon last weekend!

While the Climate Ride is focused on getting federal leaders to act, the ride also raises funds for three climate advocacy groups: Focus the Nation, Rails-to-Trails Conservancy, and Clean Air-Cool Planet. Each rider pays $100 to register for the ride and then aims to raise $2,400 for the cause among friends, family, and fellow climate stewards. Pablo and Gabrielle have raised 70% of their goal, but could use your help to finish it off by September 15th.

To learn more and make a tax-deductible donation, go to their ride website, Latinos por el Planeta, here. And if you like dance parties or auctions, Pablo and Gabrielle are holding an ’80s vs. ’90s dance party and a silent auction in Chapel Hill and Durham, NC, in the coming weeks (see details here).

It’s great these hundreds of cyclists are translating their love for biking and concern for our Earth’s climate into such a strong statement for political action. Along the route, expert speakers will educate and inspire local communities about global warming and what we can all do to be part of the solution. Then, at the steps of the U.S. Capitol, riders will call on federal leaders to act this Fall so that our country becomes a model in emissions reduction and a center for millions of clean energy jobs that drive a green economic recovery.

Though the current ride from New York City to DC is mainly for experienced cyclists like Pablo and Gabrielle, the East Coast Greenway Alliance plans to make the route accessible to all within a few years

Onwards in the Sustainable Energy Transition and good luck to Pablo and Gabrielle!

Price per Watt Dips Quickly

The price of a single solar module in Europe fell 2.2% (10 euro cents) to 4.34 euros per Watt. The August price was almost 8% below that of August 2008 and represents a new record low. And remember, this price survey is for single modules, so large orders would get lower prices.

In the US, prices fell 2.4% (11 cents) to $4.45 per Watt. The August price is now less than 3% above the record low set a few years ago. The price of solar electricity fell almost 2% to reach a new record low in all three categories:

Residential fell below 36 cents per kWh for the first time at 35.89 cents, commercial fell below 26 cents for the first time at 25.77 cents, and industrial slid to 20.07 cents per kWh.

The eight-year survey witnessed two new monthly records: number of lower prices for modules and the rate of decline (described above). A total of 176 modules had lower prices (12.7% of the survey) compared to the previous record of 126 (9.2%) in May of this year. The previous record change was an increase in prices at 142 modules in August 2005.

And Demand Poised to Grow

Solarbuzz also reported that more solar projects are moving again, a sign that demand should pick up quickly in the months ahead. Economic recovery, green governmental policy, and more attractive prices are the main drivers of this increase in demand.

Bottom line: While solar electricity prices remain higher than most conventional electricity markets, they are getting more and more competitive as the months roll by. September should be an exciting month as prices continue to decline and finally reach a record low in the US. Combining further solar price reductions with a return of tight oil market this winter should help the price of solar reach its most attractive point ever relative to other energy sources.

Onwards in the Sustainable Energy Transition-

Turbine Prices to Fall, White Hot Growth Rates to Return

Turbine prices have increased since 2001 as demand growth has been through the roof. Turbine prices have actually doubled since 2001 from a low ~75 cents per watt to ~$1.50 per watt in mid-2008. But the deep recession is inducing lower demand in 2009 (down 20-50% from the record high of 8.5 GW hit in 2008). This lower demand has allowed wind turbine supply to catch up, sending prices back toward lows of a few years ago as I mentioned a few weeks back. The grid parity I wrote may be reached by 2012 for solar was reached by wind power years ago (when the federal Production Tax Credit is included). As wind prices get more competitive and financial markets recover, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that record growth will return to the US market in 2010-12, sending demand to consecutive record highs of 10.4 GW, 11.9 GW, and 13.7 GW!

Another recent DOE report outlines a growth path to 20% of US electricity coming from wind by 2030 that has been far surpassed these past three years and by the EIA projections above. Thus, we may be able to reach 20% wind by 2025 or earlier.

Wind Farm Performance Improving

The capacity factor (percentage of time wind is producing its potential) for wind farms has improved over the years. Back before 1998, the capacity factor was in the low 20% range. Since 2005, the capacity factor has been 35-37%.

What About Solar and Other Renewables?

If wind provides 60% of new electricity demand in 2012, can solar, geothermal, and biomass provide a bulk of the remainder? My current projection is for solar to provide ~10% of EIA’s projected new demand in 2012 (over 2.5 GW). If geothermal and biomass can add a similar chunk together, we’ll only need a couple of new natural gas or coal plants that year (less than 20% of new capacity).

Bottom Line: Wind power has gone through tremendous growth in the US and worldwide. The EIA predict lower turbine prices and healthier financial markets will bring new record growth for the renewable electricity provider – making wind the leading source of new power for America. If we have similar rates of growth for other renewables, our need for new fossil fuel power plants will be miniscule by 2012. Let’s make it happen!

Onwards in the Sustainable Energy Transition-

There are significant costs to such a transition for this island nation and its 12,000 citizens. But when your highest point is less than 5 meters, you don’t have the luxury to procrastinate on emissions reduction. The more the US, China, and the EU can develop and improve renewables, the easier we can make the sustainable energy transition for our neighbors in the developed and developing world. Here’s to continued advances in solar technology that brings it to grid parity by the early 2010s so that we can all replace our older, dirty fossil fuel-based energy system.

Onwards to further climate progress-