One of the most compelling speakers at our last day of REFF Wall Street was Deutsche Bank’s Global Head of Asset Management, Kevin Parker.

The focus of his talk was the importance for the finance community to respond to resource scarcity amidst a growing world population and the threat of catastrophic climate change. Parker cited capital markets validating renewable energy with scores of billions in investment over the last few quarters, while “clean coal” is only a dream receiving government support because it is years away from commercial viability.

Parker also emphasized the opportunity over the next several months as money moves from the sidelines (safe-haven money market accounts) back into the market. He talked of more than $10 trillion, of which a small fraction flowing into renewable energy financing could revolutionize our global energy system.

Parker believes investors are waiting for some regulatory certainty — in the form of US cap and trade bill passage and a potential federal Renewable Electricity Standard (RES). If the House passes ACES today and it is able to get through the Senate and to the President’s desk this summer, investors will have some certainty to help them get further involved in the renewable energy sector.

First Solar and other solar companies could definitely use more capital to help them continue to simultaneously break efficiency records and lower costs. First Solar announced yesterday that they aim to lower module production costs per watt by a third or more in the next five years, approaching 50 cents per watt in 2014. Such progress would put solar power on equal footing with coal electricity and lower the risks from future fuel scarcity, since there is practically an infinite supply of energy available from the sun.

The hundreds of billions of dollars that flow every year into coal and oil can shift into renewables. Such a flow would mobilize bright minds to improve energy storage and grid management and overcome the challenges from intermittency.

The technology for carbon capture and storage for coal and other fossil fuels has several years before it is ready for prime time on a multi-GW scale — Parker mentioned the date 2020. Meanwhile, renewable energy is ready to provide the US with more than 10 new GW per year in 2010 and beyond. Globally, the number is poised to approach 50 GW per year in 2010.

Parker and other speakers closed REFF-Wall Street on a positive note. The solution to climate change and resource scarcity is available and getting better in the form of efficiency, wind, solar, and other renewable energies. As debt markets and tax equity improve, regulatory frameworks solidify, and stimulus funds become available in the second half of 2009, massive amounts of capital will be deployable for the renewable energy sector. The hurt from our current recession will remain for many months, but lower prices for renewable energy in 2010+ makes it the go-to technology to achieve a stable climate and a prosperous world.

New Energy Finance

Based on his firm’s research, he called the first quarter of 2009 the bottom for renewable energy finance. He doesn’t say we are in euphoric times, but does believe renewables are poised to reach record growth again within a few quarters.

Based on their recent data, New Energy Finance predicts second quarter finance to be about double first quarter numbers and back to 2007 numbers at ~$25 billion. His slides showed a projection that US wind grows faster than any year except the record 2008. He also predicts stimulus funds will begin to help the efficiency and renewable energy sector in the late second half of 2009.

All conference speakers acknowledge that the recessionary times continue to be difficult for renewable energy. Liebreich even called 2009 the year of ramen noodle meals before spectacular growth in 2010.

On the price side, Liebreich echoed others’ emphasis on the silver lining of our recession: lower prices. For wind, turbine prices should begin to fall significantly in late 2009 and early 2010. And the solar story is much more dramatic – with module prices set to decline more than 40% this year.

Many speakers are excited about the prospect for public perception of clean energy to change from expensive to cost-competitive. For instance, SolarCity CEO Lyndon Rive is using financing to make new residential solar installations a cost-saving move for homeowners in California and Arizona. And the further reduction of solar module prices in the months ahead should make financing more available and help SolarCity grow capacity to reduce its eight-month long waiting list.

Hannon Armstrong’s CEO Jeff Eckel spoke this morning about renewable price reduction aligning the stars for an amazing 2010. Other panelists agree that the year will bring record growth in US wind and solar power, with deployment breaking 10 GW and 1 GW for the first time, respectively.

Liebreich projects that most of the federal ARRA stimulus money will flow in 2010. This means the money meant to spur economic recovery may not emerge until recovery is already upon us. But this fact was presented as a reality more than a complaint. Conference panelists are sharing great appreciation for the government support that exists, calling today an unprecedented policy environment.

So, while REFF participants concede that the recessionary hurt lingers, Liebreich makes the encouraging call that the first quarter of 2009 was the bottom for the renewable energy sector. The good news of lower prices for renewables and federal stimulus support in late 2009 and 2010 signal an upcoming boom for the sector in the quarters ahead.

I’ll keep you updated on further insight as the conference continues and beyond.

These folks aim to foster a new image for the financial capital of our country. They aim to be leaders tackling climate change and empowering an energy revolution.

The American Council On Renewable Energy (ACORE) is convening a gathering of financial muscle for the second year, entitled the Renewable Energy Financial Forum (REFF). Last year, over 600 participants came to REFF Wall Street. This year, a similar number are filling the elegant Waldorf rooms to strategize a resurgence of renewable energy finance.

Even though markets continue to struggle, the conference started with positive energy this Tuesday morning. Leaders from finance are discussing how the negative trends of 2009 can make way for robust growth in 2010 – building on the positive news emerging such as bicycle sales and lower prices for solar.

The first speaker was Undersecretary of Energy Kristina Johnson. She represented a goal-oriented DOE that is aggressively interested in tapping into the vast latent renewable resources throughout the US. She put forward goals for wind and solar power to make up 21% of US electricity in 2030 (15% and 6%, respectively). She also focused on the potential for hydropower to grow from its ~6.5% share by adding turbines to lakes that are currently solely for recreation and water supply.

International Energy Agency head, Nobuo Tanaka, called this renewable energy transition necessary to properly address the urgent climate crisis from business as usual energy consumption. He believes current US federal legislation to lower emissions 80+% by 2050 is in the range of what is needed to achieve a safe greenhouse gas concentration of 450 ppm (parts per million in the atmosphere).

The head of ACORE, Michael Eckhart, estimates that such DOE renewable energy growth goals will take $1 trillion in finance over the next two decades to come to fruition. That huge prospective capital flow is why we have standing room only filling the main ballroom. The panelists are hopeful that the current freeze in capital markets will recover by mid-2010. Cards are beings swapped, relationships are beginning, and these industry leaders have better information to lead their institutions to successful renewable energy deployment in the years ahead.

It will take a while for Wall Street to change its image from unchecked greed and rapacious industry. But gatherings like REFF can help empower an ethos of environmental stewardship and climate responsibility into the community.

I’ll keep you updated on how the conference develops over the next two days. Here’s hoping participants are able to figure out and share innovative financing methods that can continue to lower renewables’ cost and help these cleaner sources substitute dirty fossil fuels in our energy system.