by Dennis Markatos-Soriano

As world leaders gather in Copenhagen to negotiate international strategy to lower global greenhouse emissions, I’d like to share a vision for part of the solution. Greenways and other improvements in bicycling and pedestrian infrastructure can make make a huge impact lowering emissions in the coming decade. Some economists and politicians who drag their feet regarding climate action complain that lowering emissions could come with a difficult price tag. But at least half of Obama’s 2020 goal can be achieved alongside large savings if we seize the opportunity to increase our use of renewable human power for transportation.

In 2009, US greenhouse gas emissions are ~10% above the goal Obama and the House have set for US emissions in 2020 (17% below 2005 levels). So, how do we lower pollution levels in the 2010s?

Transforming our Transportation System from Polluter to Solution

Transportation is currently one of the biggest polluting sectors, accounting for ~28% of US greenhouse gas emissions (US EIA, 2008). Carbon dioxide-spewing cars, trucks, and planes make up most of our national means of transportation. According to a recent study, only ~12% of Americans utilize active transportation regularly today (9% walk, 1% bike, and 2% take the bus or train). By increasing the bicycling and walking share by just 12.5% per year in the decade to come, we can achieve an active transportation share of more than 36% in 2020.

Such an increase in walking and cycling would cut transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions by over 20%, translating into a >5% drop in total US emissions. That’s more than half the goal Obama is aiming for over the next 11 years, and it comes with serious savings rather than costs. The shift would lower our need to import expensive oil by 25% or more than $60 billion per year (based on $70/barrel oil this would cut our trade deficit by more than 10% from 2009 levels). And by reducing demand for oil, it could help prevent a huge spike in oil prices in the 2010s as oil production becomes more difficult from hard-to-reach sites such as deep offshore fields and polar regions.

A 36% share for active transportation is not far-fetched, since countries such as The Netherlands and Sweden already enjoy 50-65% shares. And the health benefits from more active transportation would help keep health care costs from rising so quickly in the future.

There are some investments necessary to make this transition a smooth one. We need to foster more respect between drivers, cyclists, and pedestrians. And we need to improve cycling and walking infrastructure — building greenways so that non-motorized users have a safe, accessible route without competition with dangerous cars and trucks.

The East Coast Greenway is a perfect example of a transportation corridor that is vital to achieving a 36% active transport share. By connecting neighborhoods to schools, work, and play within cities and between cities, this developing 3,000-mile greenway makes everyday use and long-distance travel achievable by everyone from children to seniors. Where financing is lacking for greenways, we are incorporating low-cost but high-impact improvements in bicycling infrastructure such as bike lanes and signage to achieve the safest route possible in the near-term. And we look forward to working with our friends at the Alliance for Biking & Walking and elsewhere to make this vision one that communities and regions all over the US and beyond can embrace.

While efficiency, solar, and wind power are poised to provide the remaining emissions reduction, an increase in the use of our own renewable muscles can help stabilize our global climate in the decade to come. Achieving emissions reductions never felt so good!

Onwards in the Sustainable Energy Transition-

Composition Changes: Lower Carbon Intensity

On top of the lower overall consumption of electricity is a shift toward lower carbon intensity of the electricity generated. This shift was strongest in February when dirtier coal consumption for electricity fell 13.4% while demand for cleaner natural gas increased 2.4% and wind climbed significantly as well. The low price of natural gas is driving the shift from coal, as I wrote in February may happen. This could lead to coal’s share of electricity falling below 48% in 2009, a continuation of coal’s share decline of the last ten years described a couple weeks back.

Carbon Emissions Poised to Fall 3+%

When you add up fossil fuel consumption in early 2009, you get a picture of emissions in freefall. Rather than the 2.5% emissions drop I described a few days ago from the April EIA Short Term Energy Outlook, emissions from energy use are currently falling at a 5% rate. Coal use is falling ~8%, natural gas for electricity is down ~4%, and oil demand is more than 4% below 2008 levels.

Since it is possible that weather (a hot summer and cold early winter) and a late 2009 economic recovery may bring emissions levels closer to those in 2008, for now I will say that emissions are poised to fall more than 3% this year. But keep the higher 4-5% range in mind as possible – which would bring US emissions to just ~6.5% above 1990 levels.

Bottom Line: US carbon dioxide emissions are poised to fall dramatically in 2009. The more we deploy efficiency and renewables, the faster we can send emissions down and keep them down as our economic recovery revs up in late 2009/2010. I’ll keep you updated at SETenergy.org as this develops during the months ahead.

These numbers bode well for our ability to reduce emissions at an accelerating pace in the years ahead. As I posted a few weeks back, US carbon emissions fell substantially in 2008 to a level not seen since the 1990s. And preliminary estimates for January electricity consumption point to further progress as coal and natural gas use fell 3.2% and 9.9% from January 2008, respectively.

While lower-carbon natural gas took most of the substitution from coal in the period 1998-2008, growth in non-hydro renewable energy (mainly wind) played an important role as well. Just this past December, wind generation increased a whopping 67.2% compared to December 2007, and the annual share of electricity from renewables increased to 3.3% in 2008 (from 3% in 2007 and 2.9% in 2006). With electricity consumption projected to fall in 2009, the share of renewable energy will probably grow to 3.5%+ since their generation will grow (albeit slower than in 2008) while generation from coal and natural gas falls.

And in 2010+, wind and solar can grow on the scale to potentially supply most new electrical demand. By 2012+, renewable energy can meet incremental demand and also begin to take a bigger annual bite out of the US electricity pie. This should allow the coal share of electricity to continue to drop until carbon capture and storage (CCS) allows utilities to burn fossil fuels without destabilizing our climate further.

For those concerned about a loss of coal jobs, 2010 is not the abrupt end for coal. It is only another step in the transition to a cleaner energy future – a step that will provide jobs manufacturing, installing, and maintaining wind turbines and solar arrays that more than replace jobs in dirtier energy sources.

Bottom line: If we can lower coal’s share of US electricity under the climate-indifferent Bush & Co., we certainly can make great strides toward lower emissions with Obama & Co. holding the reins and a more mature renewable energy industry ready in the wings.

Onwards in the Sustainable Energy Transition-

CHP is when a thermal power plant doubles as a source of heating and cooling. The application is often most successful in dense communities like a campus or a manufacturing center. Most thermal power plants create electricity by running a turbine at extreme heat and then let the waste heat vent off in a cooling tower. But CHP utilizes (recycles) that heat to provide the heating and air needs of their locale, as much as doubling the efficiency of fossil fuel combustion (getting efficiencies as high as 80% rather than ~40% in conventional plants).

The report shows that CHP is already a big player in the US energy system, providing ~12% of our electricity. And Oak Ridge scientists outline the potential to grow CHP’s share to 20% by 2030, eliminating a majority of expected GHG emission growth during the period and lowering energy bills. Many European countries have CHP shares above 20% already so such a deployment is not a gamble for our resources.

Both my undergraduate and graduate alma maters, UNC-Chapel Hill and Princeton, utilize cogeneration facilities run on coal and natural gas (respectively) for campus electricity and heat. These systems work exceedingly well at providing low-cost and relatively low-carbon energy in a reliable way. So it’s time for us to retrofit another 60 GW that Oak Ridge has already identified to help give other efficiency and renewables efforts the chance to really reduce our nation’s carbon emissions in the years ahead. Combining CHP and renewables efforts in the years ahead can prevent the need for new fossil fuel-fired thermal plants even as our population and economy grow.

Kudos to Oak Ridge National Laboratory for this important report! And here’s to the passage of comprehensive federal legislation (either a carbon tax or cap and trade system) that will make these efforts  the right thing to do both morally and economically.

2008 is not as hot as the extreme 1998 nor the first seven years of this century, but it was more than half a degree Farhenheit hotter than the 1961-1990 norm. If that half a degree doesn’t seem like a big deal to you, that slight change is causing the Arctic sea ice to disappear and accelerating the melt of huge volumes of Greenland and Antarctic ice into our oceans. So next time we feel a day of chilly weather, we have to see that in the context of dramatic climatic shifts that even hundreds of IPCC scientists have trouble keeping track of. The next few years may resemble 2008′s cooler La Nina pattern or they may bring a return to El Nino conditions that will usher in new record temperatures and faster melting of glaciers and ice sheets.

If you are skeptical of the dangers of global warming, be skeptical of the damage of 350 parts per million (ppm) and help nations around the world achieve higher goals of 400, 450, or 500 ppm. We need everyone to do what they can to reduce energy consumption and to increase the market share of low-carbon energy sources. The recession is sending emissions down in the US, Japan and elsewhere. And we need to base our economic recovery on climate-friendly energy efficiency and low-carbon energy such as wind, natural gas, and solar.

Bottom line: While 2008 wasn’t the hottest year on record, it certainly was hot historically at #9 all-time. If you want to help preserve this lovely climate that has nurtured civilization these past several thousand years, please do your part to push the sustainable energy transition in your own life and in the policies of our communities and countries.

With only one and a half months to go, projections expect oil consumption to fall 5.4%, coal demand to stay the same, and natural gas demand to increases only 1.1% this year (compared to 6.5% last year). Add those totals together and, leaving other emissions constant, we get net carbon dioxide emissions of ~6.11 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, ~2.5% below 2007 and lower than any output so far this century.

Higher fossil fuel prices spurred our country to a more efficient lifestyle that utilized our natural resources of bright sunshine and strong winds. Wind power is forecast to have a record year, growing more than 40% or over 7 GW. This growth will put us over 24 GW, overtaking Germany as the top wind power producer in the world. Even as nationwide gas prices have now fallen below $2.20 per gallon (almost $1 below last year at this time), consumers are driving fewer miles and more efficient vehicles. We were also lucky to get a cooler summer, requiring less coal- and natural gas-fired electricity to cool our buildings than in 2007.

For 2009, the EIA predicts further emission reductions as our nation faces the tough economic reality of a deep recession with 1.4% lower GDP. This estimate, especially a large reduction in industrial production, leads them to project a drop in consumption of all fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, and coal) in 2009. Growth in renewables such as wind and solar will slow, creating both positive and negative impacts. On the positive side, consumers will see lower prices for wind turbines and solar panels as supply catches up with demand. But on the other hand, lower prices may undercut the cost of production, erasing the strong profits of the last several quarters. The passage of a cap-and-trade climate bill in 2009 will be crucial to assure these innovative industries that robust long-term growth prospects await them when the economic recovery takes hold.

The lower emissions of 2008 will make our 2020 goal of 1990 levels easier to achieve. With this update on the projections I reported last month, our nation is able to adjust our energy system at a very manageable 1% per year average rate of emissions reduction through 2020. While we will not have as much cash to finance more expensive projects in 2009, we can use the period to focus on cost-cutting efficiency to get our balance sheets in order toward a renewable energy wave in the 2010s.

Bottom Line: Congratulations, USA! You have shown the world in 2008 that you can deploy efficiency and renewable energy to lower carbon dioxide emissions substantially. But 2009 will test our commitment.

Will we 1) seize the opportunity to lower our energy costs further through efficiency and prepare for a sustainable energy revolution that spurs economic recovery?

Or will we 2) fall into our old 1990s habits of excessive energy consumption growth that contributed to our current economic difficulties?

Sustainable Energy Transition (SET) aims to help individuals and institutions thrive by picking choice #1 to lead a global energy revolution that empowers local communities, creates millions of jobs, and stabilizes our climate to preserve a livable world for ourselves and future generations.