photo from PC World

I mentioned back in April that solar-powered cell phones are coming out this summer. Well, now there’s talk of solar netbooks emerging as well. Spanish producer iUnika will begin to sell its first solar model, Gyy, in June.

A Step Forward

Since a regular laptop uses more power than a few small solar cells can provide, the Gyy has less features and capabilities than today’s average and runs on linux. Even so, the model is the beginning of further progress to make the mobile information revolution sustainable in a carbon-constrained world.

Further Efficiency Needed

Falling prices for solar in the coming months will make solar devices much more commonplace and will drive further improvement in the technology. Since space matters on a small laptop, the solar applied to such devices will likely be the more efficient (~20%) silicon-based modules from companies such as Sunpower. Technological advances are needed in two directions — increasing the energy efficiency of laptops and their applications as well as continuing to increase solar cell efficiencies toward 25% and beyond.

Onwards in the Sustainable Energy Transition-

Rig Count Yet to Find Bottom

The number of active rigs drilling for oil and natural gas fell by 10. The rig count for oil fell 4.7% and for natural gas fell .3%. Even though prices for both fuels seem to have bottomed, producers aren’t taking a chance with extra exploration expenditure. If we don’t see rig counts stabilize shortly, a dramatic drop in production will take place in the months ahead.

Gasoline Price Now Higher Than Diesel

This morning, the national average pump price passed $2.30 and its alternative diesel stayed at $2.29 per gallon. The recent quick rise in gas prices should begin to moderate in the mid-$2.30s unless some big bullish news developments take place in the week ahead. The price hikes of the last month and the growth of China’s vehicle market (passing the US for top global market) are crucial reminders that efficiency should be a top priority for consumers.

I’ll keep you up-to-date on oil and gas prices and their impact on climate mitigation as they develop in the months ahead.

Onwards in the Sustainable Energy Transition-

Quick Details

Oil consumption emits around a third of total carbon dioxide emissions. So, the 2.6 Mbd (3%) drop in oil demand would pull emissions down by ~1% overall. The question is whether coal, natural gas, and land use change/forestry would push emissions more than 1% to keep them climbing higher. Since the global economy is forecast to have negative growth, a significant increase in coal and natural gas consumption is unlikely. Therefore, my current prediction is that global greenhouse gas emissions will fall at least .5% in 2009.

As I said in April, this fall in global emissions gives hope that we are entering the era of declining carbon pollution. But the only way we can continue such a trend sustainably and prosperously is through rapid deployment of energy efficiency and renewables to begin replacing fossil fuels. We need to support the development of wind and solar markets from ~35 GW in 2008 to 50+ GW in 2010 and beyond.

Onwards in the Sustainable Energy Transition-

The Details

The EIA expects oil consumption to fall 3% in the US to a little more than 18.8 million barrels per day. Most of the reduced demand is projected to come from lower use of distillates (mainly diesel) and jet fuel. For coal, the EIA predicts consumption to fall ~2.6% based on much lower industrial and coke plant demand and a substitution to natural gas for electricity generation. Even after taking up some slack from coal, natural gas consumption is expected to fall 1.9% (.1% further than estimated in April). Adding all these decreases together produces emissions that are 3% lower than in 2008.

Room for Further Reductions

I see room for emissions to fall even further than 3% as petroleum demand is currently more than 5% below last year (not just 3%) and substitution from coal to natural gas may drive a huge drop in coal demand of 4+% (compared to their ~2.6% estimate).

Some Background on Natural Gas Substitution of Coal

The report included a supplement on coal-to-natural gas substitution which helped me understand the situation more clearly. Since natural gas power plants are more efficient (less heat needed per kWh generated), natural gas prices that are higher than coal prices by 33% or less are often competitive. While most coal demand is guaranteed through long-term contracts, as much as 10-20% of some regional electricity markets can switch from spot market coal to spot market natural gas purchases. A natural gas price of $4 per MMBtu is more economical than a coal price of $3.25 per MMBtu in many efficient combined cycle natural gas plants.

Bottom Line: US greenhouse gas emissions from energy are now predicted by the EIA to decline faster than the swift fall of 2008. For us to continue this trend in 2010 and beyond, we must base our economic recovery on efficiency and renewable energy deployment (through federal climate legislation and a Renewable Electricity Standard).

I’ll keep you updated as progress is made-

OPEC has cut its production that amount but higher crude oil production in the US is helping keep our prices below $50 for now. In fact, US crude supplies are at historically high levels on the back of the recessionary low demand of late. The EIA weekly petroleum report shows oil inventories remain more than 12% higher than last year’s level. If OPEC decides to cut production further this weekend, we could see oil prices climb a bit. But the economic news has to stop deteriorating for a big upward price move to occur.

Oil demand could really tank beyond 1.6% if economic indicators continue to under-perform. Australia and Brazil had 4th quarter contractions, and China’s exports fell more than 25% in February! With many economic analysts such as Nouriel Roubini predicting economic recovery waiting until 2010, its hard to find a floor this year for oil demand contraction.

The silver lining is that energy costs and greenhouse gas emissions are again lower in the US this year. And for us to ensure that trend continues into 2010, we’ll need to maintain a strong focus on efficiency and pass a cap and trade climate bill.

With outstanding leadership and deployment of renewables, we may even be able to make 2008 the year of peak greenhouse gas emissions globally. I’ll keep you updated on that as the numbers roll in…

CHP is when a thermal power plant doubles as a source of heating and cooling. The application is often most successful in dense communities like a campus or a manufacturing center. Most thermal power plants create electricity by running a turbine at extreme heat and then let the waste heat vent off in a cooling tower. But CHP utilizes (recycles) that heat to provide the heating and air needs of their locale, as much as doubling the efficiency of fossil fuel combustion (getting efficiencies as high as 80% rather than ~40% in conventional plants).

The report shows that CHP is already a big player in the US energy system, providing ~12% of our electricity. And Oak Ridge scientists outline the potential to grow CHP’s share to 20% by 2030, eliminating a majority of expected GHG emission growth during the period and lowering energy bills. Many European countries have CHP shares above 20% already so such a deployment is not a gamble for our resources.

Both my undergraduate and graduate alma maters, UNC-Chapel Hill and Princeton, utilize cogeneration facilities run on coal and natural gas (respectively) for campus electricity and heat. These systems work exceedingly well at providing low-cost and relatively low-carbon energy in a reliable way. So it’s time for us to retrofit another 60 GW that Oak Ridge has already identified to help give other efficiency and renewables efforts the chance to really reduce our nation’s carbon emissions in the years ahead. Combining CHP and renewables efforts in the years ahead can prevent the need for new fossil fuel-fired thermal plants even as our population and economy grow.

Kudos to Oak Ridge National Laboratory for this important report! And here’s to the passage of comprehensive federal legislation (either a carbon tax or cap and trade system) that will make these efforts  the right thing to do both morally and economically.

There are many other hybrid models that GM and other brands are showcasing, and the battery electric vehicle platform continues to progress through concept cars which aim to be ready for lots by the end of this year. Two key factors that will shape these developments into the future are whether the Big 3 survive in their current form and how gasoline prices shift in the months ahead. If Ford, Chrysler, and GM are involved in a merger to lower their costs toward financial sustainability through the current recession, will they cut some of these hybrid models or delay their electric vehicle deployment? If gasoline prices get back into a downward spiral toward $1 per gallon on further economic deterioration, will consumers forget their miserly attitude toward fuel?

These are some of the trends I will be covering as the months unfold. And I will also share information on how you can get involved to help Obama & Co. implement sound policies that are beneficial to our environment, our wallets, and to fostering long-term economic recovery in the years ahead.

Onwards in the Sustainable Energy Transition-

As I wrote last month, emissions actually fall faster than energy demand because hydroelectric plants and other renewables keep running so the more carbon-intensive coal plants are cut the most. In December, energy demand is reported down ~6.4% with thermal plants (mainly coal) generating ~9% less electricity. Aggregating these numbers with those in October and November (of 4% and 7% reduction, respectively), brings energy demand of almost 6% below last year. Converting these totals to carbon emissions translates into a drop of almost 10%. To be more conservative (allowing for revisions of the data in the months ahead), China’s greenhouse gas emissions fell at least 5% in the last quarter of 2008!

If this level of emissions reduction occurs throughout 2009, it would be a monumental reversal for the climate. China has a strong stimulus package aimed to get growth going again that include energy-intensive infrastructure projects, so that may make up for some of the recessionary emissions reduction. And hopefully our global economy will regain its footing by the second half of 2009. So, for these emissions reductions of late to continue to provide climate hope, we need to help China integrate state-of-the-art energy efficiency into its economy while of course doing the same here at home in the US.

Bottom line:  The sharp emissions drop of the last quarter show that, contrary to recent conventional wisdom, it is not inevitable that China emissions will skyrocket in perpetuity. Since their per capita energy demand is so low, emissions will probably grow. But with an acceleration of efficiency integration in China, their emissions can look more like a plateau than their recent hockey stick — giving the US, Europe and Japan the opportunity to lower global emissions through their own efficiency and renewables deployment.

Since most carbon emissions goals are framed in relation to 1990 levels, I would like to frame our oil consumption in those terms as well. September oil demand was only 7.8% above 1990 levels. So, for us to achieve 1990 oil demand levels by 2020, we would only need to reduce our oil use .65% per year (~.11 Mbd/year). But we would have to reduce natural gas and coal demand levels to 1990 levels as well, for 1990 level oil consumption to do the trick. And since we have ample domestic supplies of coal and natural gas through 2020, we might want to reduce their consumption levels at a slower rate than for foreign oil. If so, we could plan to reduce oil demand toward 1985 levels — which would translate into another 1.5 Mbd cut in demand that is achievable through a 1.4% per year demand reduction.

The likelihood of plateau world oil production by 2015-2020 may make us want to reduce oil consumption faster. But either way, it is nice to know that we are within striking distance of 1990 levels for oil demand and thus greenhouse gas emissions. These rough economic times will be difficult for most of us in the short-term. But they may help us get closer to necessary societal changes for the long-term prosperity of our Earth and all of us dependent on its health. We just have to support the efficiency and renewable energy industries that can get us growing in the right direction whenever economic recovery is able to emerge.

I’m as big a fan of solar and wind power as anyone, but the recent crash in oil and natural gas prices make them less competitive than early 2008. And with our money problems in the US and beyond, we need our climate mitigation efforts to have a big bang for each buck. That’s why it is the perfect time to focus on energy efficiency.

Energy efficiency has helped US oil consumption fall more than 5% this year, with coal and natural gas demand about equal to 2007. This lower overall fossil fuel use is poised to translate into greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) that are ~2.5% below the 2007 level to the lowest net emissions since the 1990s! If we ramp up efficiency further, we can cut emissions further in the year ahead.

Obama & Co. could support rapid efficiency deployment by initiating a federal Energy Corps that employs hundreds of thousands of people across the country from Maine to Hawaii. The first wave of green collar professionals will be needed to do energy audits on homes, offices, and manufacturing plants. And the second wave can then provide the most cost-effective efficiency upgrades determined for each locale – from additional insulation to a passive solar renovation to CFL and LED lighting.

This Energy Corps can focus on markets where electricity consumption is projected to grow to prevent a need for expensive new coal and natural gas power plants and keep GHGs in check. Once the economy begins to pick up (hopefully in 2010), the Energy Corps can put half its focus on accelerating deployment of renewable energy to more than satisfy new demand and help emissions continue to drop even when the economy is growing.

In proposing this plan, I do not mean we should abandon renewables in 2009. We need to renew a Production Tax Credit through 2010 for wind power ASAP that lets wind producers know we support their long-term success. And we’ll need to think of innovative ways to support solar and other renewables along with the Investment Tax Credit recently extended through 2016. The recession will help lower solar panel and wind turbine prices as producers’ supply catches up with rapid demand growth. As long as we ensure renewables producers do not collapse a la the late-1980s they will be poised for more white-hot growth as their prices move toward grid parity in the years to come.

But 2009 is a year for belt-tightening. So, our focus should be on cost-cutting changes that help increase our energy security, mitigate climate change, and lower our energy bills all at the same time. Energy efficiency is the appropriate tool, and Obama and his companions in federal leadership can initiate an Energy Corps next year to deploy it.