Pump prices are about to hit $2.70 per gallon nationwide, and oil has remained above $70 per barrel for several days. Most of the increase has come on expectations of economic recovery – like today’s increase in projection for China’s 2009 growth to 7.2% rather than 6.5% by the World Bank. But even more positive economic news will struggle to increase prices much more unless fuel inventories fall from (more…)
Posts Tagged ‘demand’
Oil prices rise, but supply still high
Thursday, June 18th, 2009Natural Gas Recovering on Prospects of Lower Supply
Friday, March 20th, 2009
The price of natural gas increased significantly the last couple of days. And it’s not just because of a weaker dollar. The US natural gas rig count fell another 3% last week to 857, more than 46% below their September peak. It is now at a number that threatens (more…)
It’s Electric: US Emissions Drop Further
Sunday, January 25th, 2009
The EIA recently released estimates for US electricity consumption in Oil & Gas Inventories Remain High
Saturday, January 24th, 2009The EIA released its weekly inventory reports for oil and natural gas these past two days, and even the cold weather hasn’t been able to bring supplies down to the historical average. Industrial demand has fallen so significantly that our inventory numbers leave little cause for worry in the weeks ahead. For instance, crude supplies are (more…)
In reversal, 4th quarter China carbon emissions fall
Friday, January 9th, 2009
Driven by white-hot economic growth, China carbon dioxide emissions have been increasing at a rate that put fear in the hearts of most climate scientists. But the export-oriented growth of the past several years has imploded on a crash in demand for Chinese products from recession-hit consumers in Japan, the US, and Europe. After years of almost double-digit energy demand growth, (more…)
Energy in 2009 Part III: Coal Outlook
Friday, January 2nd, 2009
Coal was almost as volatile as oil and natural gas in 2008, with its global trade price down more than 50% since the summer. While North American natural gas and global oil prices are poised for rebound since they have fallen below the higher marginal cost of production, coal production costs remain below current prices by most accounts. Therefore, coal prices have substantial room to fall if economic conditions continue to deteriorate. Below are some thoughts on coal supply and demand as we all prepare for the year ahead. (more…)
Energy in 2009 Part II: A Look at Natural Gas
Wednesday, December 31st, 2008After yesterday’s post on the wide range projection for oil next year, I wanted to share some thoughts on natural gas in 2009. I’ll start with the supply side, which has been more volatile than oil. Then I’ll go over some potential trends in demand.
The weekly EIA natural gas storage report came out today. And while last week’s inventory drop was 40% above average due to some cold weather, levels remain (more…)
Oil in 2009: Where are we headed?
Tuesday, December 30th, 2008
Before we get deep into the coming year, I would like to share some views on potential global energy shifts in 2009. Today, I’ll start with our biggest energy source — oil.
Looking back at 2008, oil has been perhaps the wildest ride. Most analysts had no clue oil could rise to its July record ~$147 per barrel and then were equally caught off guard by the recent lows below $40. It is projected that 2008 will be the first year with a global demand decrease since the early 1980s. So, what shifts can we try to anticipate in the year ahead? (more…)
Gas prices search for a bottom
Wednesday, December 10th, 2008
After falling another penny and a half today to $1.683 per gallon (the record 84th straight day of falling prices), some analysts believe gasoline may be approaching a bottom. They cite the latest weekly survey by Mastercard that suggests gas demand over the past week reached the same level as this week last year for the first time in several months. If they are right, ~$1.60-$1.65 may be as low as gas prices are headed.
But today’s EIA oil inventory report tells a different story. (more…)
Low oil demand keeps US inventories strong
Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008
Today’s weekly EIA oil report shows that lower demand keeps our inventories at levels we can live with. While key products inventories gasoline, distillates and propane are all below their five-year average range, their demand is estimated to be down 3.6%, 8.5%, and 14.5% below last year’s levels, respectively. Gasoline and diesel pump prices fell at a slower rate this past week to $1.80 and $2.74 today, but they appear to have at least a few more pennies to go before (more…)