This continues the recent production plateau just above 3 Mbd that I brought up a few weeks back to five months. Cantarell production for January was .772 Mbd, a mere 25% of Mexico’s total production after being a majority of their production a few short years ago. One bright spot is the steady rise in output of the Ku-Maloob-Zaap (KMZ) field, which just became the biggest producing field at .787 Mbd. If PeMex can keep KMZ steady and increase Chicontepec in the months ahead, we may see a slower production decline than the 9.2% of 2008.

Bottom Line: One thing is clear — the US cannot rely on oil imports from Mexico beyond 2012. The fall of Cantarell continues at alarming speed and Mexico has few fields capable to pick up the slack. Since Mexico is not alone in its decline, a transition away from foreign oil is imperative going forward — and SET encourages the US and others to use this opportunity to also mitigate climate change by employing more efficiency and renewables.