Wind Tech Advances Quicker Than Fossil Energy Tech

Many fossil energy advocates who ignore the harmful global warming effects of burning oil and natural gas pretend like technological change will allow us to increase our use of these fuels forever. But the reality is that US oil reserves and production have fallen more than 15% and 20%, respectively, since the early 1990s. And at some point within the next decade or so a similar trend will likely constrain the natural gas market even though EIA estimates of its reserves have climbed ~50% since 1993. Over the same time period, the estimate of wind power potential has climbed more than 3.5 times what the Pacific Northwest Laboratory estimated in 1993. This shows that wind technology during the period has advanced much quicker than exploration and production technology for oil and natural gas. A major improvement comes from taller wind turbines today, since wind is stronger at 80 meters than at 50 meters above the ground.

The Biggest Changes

The main sources of growth for US wind power potential came in the Great Plains, which was already known to be the heart of our resource. Texas, long the largest wind power producing state, is now estimated to be the top state for wind potential after passing the Dakotas and Kansas. In fact, it is estimated that Texas can produce from wind 15X the amount of power it consumes from all electric sources today. Another twenty states can also produce so much wind power that they could become major exporters of this electricity to other states around the country. The estimate excluded wind potential in parks, urban areas and over water — so this is a major underestimate once you consider the offshore wind potential we have off the Atlantic and Pacific coasts. Even so, the 37,000 TWh per year (~365 quadrillion Btus) listed in their onshore wind power estimate is more energy than that contained in our oil and natural gas reserves combined.

Solar Energy Potential Even Larger

The estimate of solar energy potential is more than 100X that of wind power, at over 2,000 TW. So, the issue for renewable energy isn’t any lack of supply. The challenge is for us is to continue cost reductions for wind and solar to make them cheaper than their fossil energy competitors. The year 2010 could be a breakthrough period in that regard as prices for wind turbines and solar modules fall toward grid parity.

Renewables Dominance Will Take Over a Decade

Even when wind and solar are more economical, it will take some time for them to grow from their current base of ~2% of US electricity. Manufacturers of solar modules and wind turbines will have to ramp up global production capacity from current levels of ~10 GW and ~40 GW, respectively, to at least 50 GW each before these sources of electricity can take significant market share from natural gas, oil, and coal. And we will need to continue to improve energy storage capabilities and economics along with our development of a smart grid that can adjust to the intermittency of wind and sunshine for this transition to renewables to take place smoothly over the next 10-25 years.

Now we know there is plenty of renewable energy available to keep us warm, lighted, and wired throughout the 21st century once we have moved on from our dependence on fossil fuels. Let’s make 2010 a huge step in this monumental project!

Onwards in the Sustainable Energy Transition-

Dennis Markatos-Soriano

The second is a quick mention of the East Coast Greenway in an article on climate mitigation efforts on Princeton University’s campus.

Enjoy!

Pennsylvania/New Jersey, February 18, 2010 – The East Coast Greenway (ECG) is about to get safer and more accessible throughout the Philadelphia region thanks to significant support from the US Department of Transportation (DOT). On Wednesday, $23 million was awarded to complete numerous sections of the ECG through the Transportation Investment Generating Economic Recovery (TIGER) grants program.

The federal stimulus grant will create jobs and improve the quality of life throughout the region. East Coast Greenway Alliance Executive Director, Dennis Markatos-Soriano, remarked, “The Department of Transportation made a great choice today. Not only will this grant create and save around 1,000 jobs, but it will also improve the region’s air quality and give people access to a safe route for bicycling and walking to lower transportation and health costs for generations to come. By connecting this effort to the East Coast Greenway, the project both unifies the Philadelphia region of six million people and connects them to a corridor that goes North all the way to Canada and South all the way to Key West, Florida.”

While some of the 51 TIGER projects funded were bigger (such as a $105 million rail project in Tennessee and Alabama), the East Coast Greenway package was the largest bike and pedestrian recipient in the country. For significant funds to go to efficient modes of transportation like bicycling, walking, and transit is a testament to the current DOT’s commitment to a green economic recovery in the months and years ahead. Developed trail systems like the East Coast Greenway are well documented to support economic development and raise real estate values. And the economically distressed urban areas that this grant helps the ECG connect (to be constructed over the next two and a half years) are important targets for economic recovery.

The Pennsylvania section of the 3,000-mile East Coast Greenway is poised to grow quickly from its base of 22% completion today. The application was performed by the Pennsylvania Environmental Council and the Bicycle Coalition of Greater Philadelphia, regional partners of the ECGA, in collaboration with six counties and agencies in Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

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Background on ECGA:

The East Coast Greenway Alliance is a 501(c)3 nonprofit dedicated to establishing a safe, accessible 3,000-mile greenway from Maine to Florida through major urban centers along the East Coast. Mobilizing our network of staff, volunteers and partners, ECGA works to achieve its vision of an extensive bike/pedestrian corridor that links communities to the areas of natural beauty around them. By serving non-motorized users of all abilities and ages, the East Coast Greenway will help people safely bicycle or walk for their daily commutes to work, school, and play as well as for long-distance travel. The greenway will help free America from its expensive dependence on oil, lower health costs by improving citizens’ fitness, address climate change and air quality concerns by reducing pollution, and provide good construction and maintenance jobs to help our economy recover. Further details and membership information to support the project can be found at www.greenway.org.

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Global Growth Shines

The global wind power market also grew at an astounding rate — clocking a 37.5% growth rate in its annual market (37 GW vs. 27 GW in 2008). China’s annual growth became the biggest in the world at 13 GW, which makes sense due to their larger electricity demand growth. At the end of 2009, China became the 3rd largest wind energy producer after the US and Germany (35.1 GW, 25.8 GW, and 25.1 GW). China will become the 2nd biggest wind producer in 2010 and may challenge the US by 2011.

The global solar market didn’t grow as quickly due to the collapse of its top market of 2008 — Spain (~50% of the world market that year). But Germany rode to the rescue and extended its lead as the biggest solar power producer in the world (it may have passed 8 GW). Germans took advantage of a 40+% decrease in solar module prices and had record growth (becoming ~50% of the global market themselves).

In the US

As I wrote last year, wind was already replacing oil-fired electricity in 2008. In 2009, wind took some market share from the most polluting power source, coal. In the years ahead, wind and solar can provide for new electricity demand growth and then begin to take significant bites out of the market for the leading electricity sources, coal and natural gas.

At 35 GW, wind now produces ~2% of US electricity demand. At almost 2 GW, solar produces ~.1% of US electricity demand. Biomass and geothermal produce ~1.5% and hydro almost 7%. The big three power sources today are nuclear (~20%), natural gas (~23%), and coal (~45%). When you look at particular states, it is exciting to see that wind power already provides three states with more than 20% of their power needs (Wyoming, Iowa, and North Dakota). By 2023, wind could provide 20% of the whole country’s electricity and solar another 12.5% (based on growth rates of 17.6% per year for wind – half the recent rate – and 40.4% for solar – a slight pickup from the last few years).

The US Energy Information Administration predicts US demand growth for electricity at a rate of 1% per year through 2035. I personally think that rate is higher than necessary as electricity demand growth has fallen every decade since the 1950s and it only grew .4% per year in the ’00s. Increased efficiency efforts can help electricity demand stay flat or even fall, as Google presents in its Clean Energy 2030 Plan.

Trends in Europe as a Glimpse at Our Future?

Europe installed over 10 GW of wind power capacity in 2009. The continent now gets ~9% of its electricity from wind and wind was the top source of of new electrical capacity at 39%. Solar power was third at 16% after natural gas which supplied 26%. Adding hydro and biomass, renewable energy provided 61% of new capacity. Meanwhile, coal is on the decline, as over 3 GW were decommissioned. The US can accomplish this same feat of most new demand coming from renewables in 2010 and beyond.

Price Curves Favorable for Wind & Solar

The prices of wind and solar should continue to drop in 2010, as opposed to an increase in the price of oil, natural gas, and coal. This trend should help maintain swift growth from these sources and make them the new energy titans within a few more years.

The Human Toll of Fossil Fuels

As I discussed a few months back, our addiction to fossil fuels has a serious human toll (on top of inducing global warming and hurting air quality). The tragic blast at a Connecticut power plant that killed at least five people today is a grim reminder of this. Our transition to an efficient reliance on renewable energy will help to reduce such accidents in the future.

Nuclear & “Clean Coal” Not a Near-term Remedy

While Obama has been trumpeting nuclear and “clean coal” as a necessary bridge to a renewable energy future that he thinks is decades away, renewables are actually better situated to provide for us. It takes ten years to commission and build a new nuclear power plant. And carbon sequestration coal is not market-ready yet. In contrast, wind and solar are growing quickly, proven technologies, and falling in cost. Here’s to further record growth for wind and solar in 2010 — finally putting to rest any doubts that they can lead us to a new climate-friendly energy future.

Onwards in the Sustainable Energy Transition-

Dennis Markatos-Soriano

by Dennis Markatos-Soriano

As world leaders gather in Copenhagen to negotiate international strategy to lower global greenhouse emissions, I’d like to share a vision for part of the solution. Greenways and other improvements in bicycling and pedestrian infrastructure can make make a huge impact lowering emissions in the coming decade. Some economists and politicians who drag their feet regarding climate action complain that lowering emissions could come with a difficult price tag. But at least half of Obama’s 2020 goal can be achieved alongside large savings if we seize the opportunity to increase our use of renewable human power for transportation.

In 2009, US greenhouse gas emissions are ~10% above the goal Obama and the House have set for US emissions in 2020 (17% below 2005 levels). So, how do we lower pollution levels in the 2010s?

Transforming our Transportation System from Polluter to Solution

Transportation is currently one of the biggest polluting sectors, accounting for ~28% of US greenhouse gas emissions (US EIA, 2008). Carbon dioxide-spewing cars, trucks, and planes make up most of our national means of transportation. According to a recent study, only ~12% of Americans utilize active transportation regularly today (9% walk, 1% bike, and 2% take the bus or train). By increasing the bicycling and walking share by just 12.5% per year in the decade to come, we can achieve an active transportation share of more than 36% in 2020.

Such an increase in walking and cycling would cut transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions by over 20%, translating into a >5% drop in total US emissions. That’s more than half the goal Obama is aiming for over the next 11 years, and it comes with serious savings rather than costs. The shift would lower our need to import expensive oil by 25% or more than $60 billion per year (based on $70/barrel oil this would cut our trade deficit by more than 10% from 2009 levels). And by reducing demand for oil, it could help prevent a huge spike in oil prices in the 2010s as oil production becomes more difficult from hard-to-reach sites such as deep offshore fields and polar regions.

A 36% share for active transportation is not far-fetched, since countries such as The Netherlands and Sweden already enjoy 50-65% shares. And the health benefits from more active transportation would help keep health care costs from rising so quickly in the future.

There are some investments necessary to make this transition a smooth one. We need to foster more respect between drivers, cyclists, and pedestrians. And we need to improve cycling and walking infrastructure — building greenways so that non-motorized users have a safe, accessible route without competition with dangerous cars and trucks.

The East Coast Greenway is a perfect example of a transportation corridor that is vital to achieving a 36% active transport share. By connecting neighborhoods to schools, work, and play within cities and between cities, this developing 3,000-mile greenway makes everyday use and long-distance travel achievable by everyone from children to seniors. Where financing is lacking for greenways, we are incorporating low-cost but high-impact improvements in bicycling infrastructure such as bike lanes and signage to achieve the safest route possible in the near-term. And we look forward to working with our friends at the Alliance for Biking & Walking and elsewhere to make this vision one that communities and regions all over the US and beyond can embrace.

While efficiency, solar, and wind power are poised to provide the remaining emissions reduction, an increase in the use of our own renewable muscles can help stabilize our global climate in the decade to come. Achieving emissions reductions never felt so good!

Onwards in the Sustainable Energy Transition-

ECGA-US DOT Partnership Begins (From left: US DOT Assistant Secretary for Policy Polly Trottenberg, Deputy Secretary John Porcari, ECGA Mid-Atlantic Trail Coordinator Mike Oliva, and Executive Director Dennis Markatos-Soriano - photo by Jack Wells)

This week, our East Coast Greenway began to move from a solely grassroots initiative to a project also backed by the most important transportation institution in the country. We have great relationships with many of the state Departments of Transportation (DOTs), but achieving federal partnership interest will effect a huge leap in our ability to make our route safe and accessible to all.

It all started last week when our Mid-Atlantic Trail Coordinator Mike Oliva emailed a note to US DOT Deputy Secretary John Porcari. The note congratulated the Deputy Secretary on his appointment by Obama and mentioned that we would love to discuss our project with him. Deputy Secretary Porcari served as Secretary of the Maryland DOT before his federal appointment, so he had familiarity with our project and even worked with our Boardmember David Dionne in the state.

Porcari emailed us back the next day with an interest to meet. He saw the potential of the DOT supporting the East Coast Greenway as a pilot for establishing an interstate trail network nationwide. This past Monday, I got a call during a work trip in Rhode Island that the meeting was set for the next day, from 2:45-3:15 in the afternoon. The meeting grew to include Assistant Secretary of Policy, Polly Trottenberg, as well as DOT Chief Economist, Jack Wells.

Mike Oliva and I raced down to Washington Tuesday morning in our suits, enjoying the East Coast Greenway signs along The Mall on our way to the DOT West Building, 1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE. Once in the building, we were escorted up to the Deputy Secretary’s conference room.

Since Porcari had familiarity with sections of the East Coast Greenway in Maryland and of our overarching vision, he asked for an update on our progress and then we jumped into a brainstorming session on how the US DOT can get involved to ensure success for the project. This was inspiring. Obama had clearly hired a great crop of transportation leaders. They understand our transportation system must play its role in reducing carbon dioxide and other emissions, lowering our expensive dependence on foreign oil, and decreasing obesity rates that are hurting our people’s health.

They want to know what stretches of the East Coast Greenway would especially benefit from federal attention. They are also interested in highlighting instances of Stimulus funds improving and extending the East Coast Greenway. While our federal designation as a Millennial Trail under Clinton was a great start (thank you Advisory Board member Jeff Olson), we are excited that current DOT leaders sound ready to step up in a more active way. A safe and accessible East Coast Greenway that enhances the livability of our eastern communities is within our grasp. By 2012, we can make our whole corridor either greenway or bike lanes and sharrow-marked route so that everyone from children to the elderly can enjoy it for daily commutes, a relaxing walk in the woods, and long-distance travel.

Porcari, Trottenberg, and Wells all agreed that we have to engage more than the DOT. We need the active partnership of our leaders in Congress and the Department of Interior as well (so look out for blog posts in the months ahead on other trips to Washington). Combining the power of our growing grassroots with stakeholders from the local to the federal level will drive strong progress in the months ahead.

Together, we can build an Eisenhower Interstate System 2.0 – one that integrates safe, healthy and green transportation into America’s mix and helps drive a strong economic recovery in the years ahead.

The solarbuzz.com module price survey reported industrial solar prices dropped .9% for September to fall below 20 cents per kWh for the first time. It’s price is more than 7% below that of September 2008. With commercial and residential solar prices remaining just above 25 and 35 cents per kWh, respectively, solar remains more expensive than conventional electricity in most markets. But that may change within the next three years. 

Price moves in US & Europe similar

Solar module retail prices reached a new record low in September, falling 1.4% (6 euro cents) to 4.28 euros per watt. This price has finally dropped below the record low back in 2003-04 of ~$4.33 when the dollar was stronger. Prices in the US also fell 6 cents (1.3%) to reach $4.39 per watt. 

Current Retail Price Drops Only the Beginning

The fall in retail prices of ~9% for a single module over the last year is only the beginning. On the wholesale side, solar modules are projected to fall as much as 50% this Fall from the third quarter of 2008. That leaves another 40% of retail price drops for the months ahead just to catch up. And wholesale module prices are projected by many to fall a good deal further over the next several months. One analyst recently projected the massive overcapacity of supply beyond recessionary demand should lower wholesale prices another 40% from today’s levels in 2010. This would translate into a module price below $1 per watt. He went further to predict prices per watt to approach 50 cents in 2011 — which would easily mean grid parity within two years if he were right and solar producers could do so profitably. The same analyst predicted that as many as half of the ~200 current solar producers will go bankrupt due to this massive price dive. 

Consumers & Installers Will Reap Benefits

These lower prices should translate into huge savings for consumers and solar installers in the years ahead. Lower prices will drive greater demand and help wean the solar industry off of current governmental incentives. While the profits of solar producers from First Solar to Solarworld to China Sunergy will be squeezed, the price drop will allow the Solar Age to emerge in the 2010s as solar chargers for our laptops, cell phones, and other aspects of our daily lives will become second nature.

Onwards in the sustainable energy transition-

Dennis

Bicyclists ready for a greenway

Thank you for reading the Sustainable Energy Transition (SET) blogs and being involved in our initiatives over the past 13 months!  The experience I gained working on SET efforts has been essential for me as I stayed abreast of recent changes in our energy system and their effects on climate change. After ~35,000 visits, more than 250 blogs, and scores of endorsements for our campaigns – I have found an amazing opportunity that I can’t pass up. I will be the next Executive Director of the East Coast Greenway Alliance (ECGA).

A Tangible Project to Reduce Emissions and Drive Economic Recovery

I’ve been writing about the importance of addressing climate change and oil supply insecurity for years now. Finally, I found a project to commit the next several years to do just that. I will still blog every now and then on developments in solar, wind, and energy efficiency, but my focus will be building relationships with allies up and down the east coast to deploy a bike/ped corridor that gives people a local and long-distance option for green travel that lowers transportation costs and thus supports American economic recovery.

Building on a Solid Foundation

The ECGA was founded in 1991 by 10 committed cyclists who had a vision of a bikeway/trail to connect cities up and down the East Coast. Within a few years, a growing nonprofit emerged from this interest under the leadership of co-founder Karen Votava. Karen, the other seven that came on staff, and scores of committed volunteers transformed the ECG from an idea into 600+ miles of greenway that now make up 21% of the eventual trail. A number of people have already biked this urban sister to the Appalachian trail, as on-road portions are mapped out connecting the current greenways.

It is now my task to build on the solid foundation laid out by the ECGA and its 5,000 members. By 2025, I aim for a complete off-road greenway to be a commuting and recreational path for millions of people from Florida to Maine.

We’ll Need Your Help

By 2015, we plan to have a smooth ride available for travelers from New York City to Wilmington, Delaware. And by 2020, the path from Washington, DC, to Boston should be accessible to all – while still making tremendous progress on our trail sections to the South and North of this route. To meet our ambitious goals of trail growth, we will need you to support the East Coast Greenway Alliance as a member or an ally.

Please check out our ECGA daily blog, twitter stream, and facebook page which will go live in September to keep our members and the public up-to-date on progress. If you like SET and care about global warming and the American economy, you’ll love the East Coast Greenway.

Let’s complete it together!

The Climate Ride initiative started last September with over 100 riders. This year, the ridership has more than doubled and is perfectly timed (September 26-30) to push the Senate to pass a climate bill like the House’s recent bill, the American Clean Energy & Security Act.

Pablo and Gabrielle are the two riders representing North Carolina, and I have no doubt they will represent my native state well. Pablo has been a great athlete since his childhood in Costa Rica. We played many fun soccer games throughout college and afterward. And they both just finished an impressive triathlon last weekend!

While the Climate Ride is focused on getting federal leaders to act, the ride also raises funds for three climate advocacy groups: Focus the Nation, Rails-to-Trails Conservancy, and Clean Air-Cool Planet. Each rider pays $100 to register for the ride and then aims to raise $2,400 for the cause among friends, family, and fellow climate stewards. Pablo and Gabrielle have raised 70% of their goal, but could use your help to finish it off by September 15th.

To learn more and make a tax-deductible donation, go to their ride website, Latinos por el Planeta, here. And if you like dance parties or auctions, Pablo and Gabrielle are holding an ’80s vs. ’90s dance party and a silent auction in Chapel Hill and Durham, NC, in the coming weeks (see details here).

It’s great these hundreds of cyclists are translating their love for biking and concern for our Earth’s climate into such a strong statement for political action. Along the route, expert speakers will educate and inspire local communities about global warming and what we can all do to be part of the solution. Then, at the steps of the U.S. Capitol, riders will call on federal leaders to act this Fall so that our country becomes a model in emissions reduction and a center for millions of clean energy jobs that drive a green economic recovery.

Though the current ride from New York City to DC is mainly for experienced cyclists like Pablo and Gabrielle, the East Coast Greenway Alliance plans to make the route accessible to all within a few years

Onwards in the Sustainable Energy Transition and good luck to Pablo and Gabrielle!

Price per Watt Dips Quickly

The price of a single solar module in Europe fell 2.2% (10 euro cents) to 4.34 euros per Watt. The August price was almost 8% below that of August 2008 and represents a new record low. And remember, this price survey is for single modules, so large orders would get lower prices.

In the US, prices fell 2.4% (11 cents) to $4.45 per Watt. The August price is now less than 3% above the record low set a few years ago. The price of solar electricity fell almost 2% to reach a new record low in all three categories:

Residential fell below 36 cents per kWh for the first time at 35.89 cents, commercial fell below 26 cents for the first time at 25.77 cents, and industrial slid to 20.07 cents per kWh.

The eight-year survey witnessed two new monthly records: number of lower prices for modules and the rate of decline (described above). A total of 176 modules had lower prices (12.7% of the survey) compared to the previous record of 126 (9.2%) in May of this year. The previous record change was an increase in prices at 142 modules in August 2005.

And Demand Poised to Grow

Solarbuzz also reported that more solar projects are moving again, a sign that demand should pick up quickly in the months ahead. Economic recovery, green governmental policy, and more attractive prices are the main drivers of this increase in demand.

Bottom line: While solar electricity prices remain higher than most conventional electricity markets, they are getting more and more competitive as the months roll by. September should be an exciting month as prices continue to decline and finally reach a record low in the US. Combining further solar price reductions with a return of tight oil market this winter should help the price of solar reach its most attractive point ever relative to other energy sources.

Onwards in the Sustainable Energy Transition-