Global Growth Shines

The global wind power market also grew at an astounding rate — clocking a 37.5% growth rate in its annual market (37 GW vs. 27 GW in 2008). China’s annual growth became the biggest in the world at 13 GW, which makes sense due to their larger electricity demand growth. At the end of 2009, China became the 3rd largest wind energy producer after the US and Germany (35.1 GW, 25.8 GW, and 25.1 GW). China will become the 2nd biggest wind producer in 2010 and may challenge the US by 2011.

The global solar market didn’t grow as quickly due to the collapse of its top market of 2008 — Spain (~50% of the world market that year). But Germany rode to the rescue and extended its lead as the biggest solar power producer in the world (it may have passed 8 GW). Germans took advantage of a 40+% decrease in solar module prices and had record growth (becoming ~50% of the global market themselves).

In the US

As I wrote last year, wind was already replacing oil-fired electricity in 2008. In 2009, wind took some market share from the most polluting power source, coal. In the years ahead, wind and solar can provide for new electricity demand growth and then begin to take significant bites out of the market for the leading electricity sources, coal and natural gas.

At 35 GW, wind now produces ~2% of US electricity demand. At almost 2 GW, solar produces ~.1% of US electricity demand. Biomass and geothermal produce ~1.5% and hydro almost 7%. The big three power sources today are nuclear (~20%), natural gas (~23%), and coal (~45%). When you look at particular states, it is exciting to see that wind power already provides three states with more than 20% of their power needs (Wyoming, Iowa, and North Dakota). By 2023, wind could provide 20% of the whole country’s electricity and solar another 12.5% (based on growth rates of 17.6% per year for wind – half the recent rate – and 40.4% for solar – a slight pickup from the last few years).

The US Energy Information Administration predicts US demand growth for electricity at a rate of 1% per year through 2035. I personally think that rate is higher than necessary as electricity demand growth has fallen every decade since the 1950s and it only grew .4% per year in the ’00s. Increased efficiency efforts can help electricity demand stay flat or even fall, as Google presents in its Clean Energy 2030 Plan.

Trends in Europe as a Glimpse at Our Future?

Europe installed over 10 GW of wind power capacity in 2009. The continent now gets ~9% of its electricity from wind and wind was the top source of of new electrical capacity at 39%. Solar power was third at 16% after natural gas which supplied 26%. Adding hydro and biomass, renewable energy provided 61% of new capacity. Meanwhile, coal is on the decline, as over 3 GW were decommissioned. The US can accomplish this same feat of most new demand coming from renewables in 2010 and beyond.

Price Curves Favorable for Wind & Solar

The prices of wind and solar should continue to drop in 2010, as opposed to an increase in the price of oil, natural gas, and coal. This trend should help maintain swift growth from these sources and make them the new energy titans within a few more years.

The Human Toll of Fossil Fuels

As I discussed a few months back, our addiction to fossil fuels has a serious human toll (on top of inducing global warming and hurting air quality). The tragic blast at a Connecticut power plant that killed at least five people today is a grim reminder of this. Our transition to an efficient reliance on renewable energy will help to reduce such accidents in the future.

Nuclear & “Clean Coal” Not a Near-term Remedy

While Obama has been trumpeting nuclear and “clean coal” as a necessary bridge to a renewable energy future that he thinks is decades away, renewables are actually better situated to provide for us. It takes ten years to commission and build a new nuclear power plant. And carbon sequestration coal is not market-ready yet. In contrast, wind and solar are growing quickly, proven technologies, and falling in cost. Here’s to further record growth for wind and solar in 2010 — finally putting to rest any doubts that they can lead us to a new climate-friendly energy future.

Onwards in the Sustainable Energy Transition-

Dennis Markatos-Soriano

We have one of the best public transit systems, with a new subway line on the East Side being built to alleviate some of the current rush hour crowds. A strong transit system is one of the biggest pillars of Bloomberg’s PlaNYC goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 30% by 2030. And under the leadership of Department of Transportation Commissioner Janette Sadik-Khan, we have made great strides in our bicycling infrastructure. In the last three years, the on-street bike network (bike lanes and greenways) has grown more than 50%, from ~400 miles to over 600. Further expansion is needed to connect current greenways and bike lanes. For instance, those of us in the Upper East Side need a way to safely bike to and from downtown through a bike lane on 2nd Avenue and an expansion of the 1st Avenue bike lane below 72nd Street. These infrastructure improvement projects will provide much-needed green jobs for New Yorkers and would help NYC get on the top 10 list in 2010 and beyond.

Renewable Energy Deployment

Another area where New York City needs improvement to lead its peers is renewable energy deployment. While Governor Patterson has strong goals such as 100 MW solar by 2015 (with a significant portion serving NYC potentially), solar currently supplies less than .1% of our city’s electricity demand. New York’s solar market size is less than a third of New Jersey’s (the #2 state), so we will need to more than triple our efforts to rank as a solar energy leader. Luckily for us, prices for solar panels are falling more than 30% in 2009, helping to make deployment economical once the recession subsides.

There is also great potential for NYC to get more electricity from wind power. Earlier this year, New York became the eighth state to join the 1 GW wind club, but this only translates into 2-2.5% of the state’s electricity demand. Onshore and offshore wind potential could provide more than 15% of the state and city’s power needs within a few short years if we prepare ourselves to take advantage of lower wind turbine prices in 2010 and beyond. To compete with the renewable energy leadership of San Francisco and Austin, we’ll need aggressive deployment in the months and years ahead.

Recycling, Efficient Buildings & Green Space

Other steps we can take to get into the top 10 list include improving our recycling efforts and mobilizing building construction and renovation to achieve efficient LEED standards. On top of that, the Mayor’s efforts to plant more trees throughout the City should help as well – adding value to every neighborhood, especially those out of easy walking distance to our green treasures like Central Park and Prospect Park.

Bottom Line: New York City is making progress toward environmental and climate leadership. But we have a ways to go if we want to ensure a place in top 10 green American cities lists. If we accelerate the improvement of our bicycling infrastructure and the deployment of renewable energy throughout our boroughs, New York City can proudly establish itself as the Big Green Apple so many of us hope it will be.

photo from PC World

I mentioned back in April that solar-powered cell phones are coming out this summer. Well, now there’s talk of solar netbooks emerging as well. Spanish producer iUnika will begin to sell its first solar model, Gyy, in June.

A Step Forward

Since a regular laptop uses more power than a few small solar cells can provide, the Gyy has less features and capabilities than today’s average and runs on linux. Even so, the model is the beginning of further progress to make the mobile information revolution sustainable in a carbon-constrained world.

Further Efficiency Needed

Falling prices for solar in the coming months will make solar devices much more commonplace and will drive further improvement in the technology. Since space matters on a small laptop, the solar applied to such devices will likely be the more efficient (~20%) silicon-based modules from companies such as Sunpower. Technological advances are needed in two directions — increasing the energy efficiency of laptops and their applications as well as continuing to increase solar cell efficiencies toward 25% and beyond.

Onwards in the Sustainable Energy Transition-

Quick Details

Oil consumption emits around a third of total carbon dioxide emissions. So, the 2.6 Mbd (3%) drop in oil demand would pull emissions down by ~1% overall. The question is whether coal, natural gas, and land use change/forestry would push emissions more than 1% to keep them climbing higher. Since the global economy is forecast to have negative growth, a significant increase in coal and natural gas consumption is unlikely. Therefore, my current prediction is that global greenhouse gas emissions will fall at least .5% in 2009.

As I said in April, this fall in global emissions gives hope that we are entering the era of declining carbon pollution. But the only way we can continue such a trend sustainably and prosperously is through rapid deployment of energy efficiency and renewables to begin replacing fossil fuels. We need to support the development of wind and solar markets from ~35 GW in 2008 to 50+ GW in 2010 and beyond.

Onwards in the Sustainable Energy Transition-

Three weeks ago, I wrote about a small drop in production as the potential beginning of decline. But then the following week saw the year’s highest production at 5.481 million barrels per day (Mbd). So I waited to report the small fall in production that I read about last week (a 1.1% slide to 5.421) until after a second straight drop followed it. And that consecutive drop was reported this week as output slid further to 5.269 Mbd.

A Significant Drop in Production

While US crude production currently remains .25 Mbd above last year, the .21 Mbd (almost 4%) drop in production over two weeks could signal tighter supplies on the way. If such a rapid decrease continues for three more short weeks,  output would fall below 5 Mbd again and require imports to rise.

High Fuel Inventories Prevent Short-Term Worry

Recessionary low demand has caused all fuel inventories to remain above average. While gasoline demand was only down .4% last week, demand for distillates (mainly diesel) and propane fell 16.8% and 8.5%, respectively. As a result, crude oil inventories are almost 15% higher than last year and the highest since 1990. So it will take many weeks of US production below 5 Mbd for supplies to feel tight again.

Rig Count Falling, But More Slowly

The number of rigs actively drilling for new oil and natural gas wells slid again this week to 945 (oil fell 6 to 196, natural gas fell 1 to 741, and miscellaneous fell 3 to 8). This weekly slide of 10 rigs (1%) is much slower than the ~40 rig drops of recent weeks.  But the further slide means that oil output will probably continue to decline for several months. And natural gas, with its faster decline rates, will probably begin to show significant production decreases soon. With natural gas storage that is 34% above last year and 22.5% above the five-year average, this fuel carries no short-term worry either. But by late summer, output declines may catch up with the rate of recession-induced demand reduction and get the price back above $4 per MBtu.

Bottom Line: The falling rig count is finally translating into lower oil output and will soon show itself in natural gas production numbers. While supplies are ample for the short-term, more market tightness is on the way in the medium term. A continued focus on deploying efficiency and renewables can prevent a 2008-style price spike as output falls in late 2009 and 2010.

Onwards in the Sustainable Energy Transition-

Composition Changes: Lower Carbon Intensity

On top of the lower overall consumption of electricity is a shift toward lower carbon intensity of the electricity generated. This shift was strongest in February when dirtier coal consumption for electricity fell 13.4% while demand for cleaner natural gas increased 2.4% and wind climbed significantly as well. The low price of natural gas is driving the shift from coal, as I wrote in February may happen. This could lead to coal’s share of electricity falling below 48% in 2009, a continuation of coal’s share decline of the last ten years described a couple weeks back.

Carbon Emissions Poised to Fall 3+%

When you add up fossil fuel consumption in early 2009, you get a picture of emissions in freefall. Rather than the 2.5% emissions drop I described a few days ago from the April EIA Short Term Energy Outlook, emissions from energy use are currently falling at a 5% rate. Coal use is falling ~8%, natural gas for electricity is down ~4%, and oil demand is more than 4% below 2008 levels.

Since it is possible that weather (a hot summer and cold early winter) and a late 2009 economic recovery may bring emissions levels closer to those in 2008, for now I will say that emissions are poised to fall more than 3% this year. But keep the higher 4-5% range in mind as possible – which would bring US emissions to just ~6.5% above 1990 levels.

Bottom Line: US carbon dioxide emissions are poised to fall dramatically in 2009. The more we deploy efficiency and renewables, the faster we can send emissions down and keep them down as our economic recovery revs up in late 2009/2010. I’ll keep you updated at SETenergy.org as this develops during the months ahead.