The year ahead appears poised to buy cheap Accutane line be another wild ride for the energy sector. A recovering US economy combined with continued strength in China and buy cheap Accutane line India will send oil and coal prices toward highs not seen since 2008. Meanwhile, solar and buy cheap Accutane line wind power will become increasingly attractive investments and grow their share of the energy pie.
Oil: Gasoline Gets Expensive Again
The financial collapse of September 2008 took the wind out of oil’s bullish run from $10 per barrel in the late 1990s to over $140 in mid-2008. But as the US economy regains its footing (even the housing sector by late 2011), gasoline is shooting back up toward $4 per gallon. Prices recently climbed back above per gallon Premarin capsule – meaning that Americans are again sending over $1 billion per day for overseas imports to serve our oil addiction. It’s time for buy cheap Accutane line our country to embrace the bicycle and more walking – but I’ll leave more on that for another post. I see gasoline increasing toward $3.25+ on $100 oil due to an inability of non-OPEC producers to increase supply that buy cheap Accutane line matches higher demand, particularly from China. And most OPEC nations seem reluctant to buy cheap Accutane line increase output levels while prices rise.
Coal: Historic Highs on Their Way
China and buy cheap Accutane line India are becoming huge net importers of coal and this development will tighten the buy cheap Accutane line global coal market significantly. South African, Indonesian, and Australian exports will be buy cheap Accutane line maxed out, sending importers on the lookout for coal from the buy cheap Accutane line US and elsewhere. Supply increases take time so the tight global market will likely push spot market coal prices above $150/ton, potentially challenging mid-2008 levels above $175/ton.
Natural Gas: Rising from the Bottom
Natural gas prices in the buy cheap Accutane line US have remained relatively low even during the recent 18-month run-up in oil prices, a buy cheap Accutane line departure from the usual price link between oil and natural gas. This divergence in price is buy cheap Accutane line due to recent growth in natural gas supply based on new drilling techniques that buy cheap Accutane line use potent chemical mixes to extract shale gas formerly too difficult to buy cheap Accutane line retrieve. Unless the extraction techniques are slowed on water pollution concerns, this buy cheap Accutane line drilling is poised to keep a lid on natural gas prices and buy cheap Accutane line thus help natural gas keep market share it took from coal in 2009. I see natural gas rising from buy cheap Accutane line the bottom ~$4 per MMBtu lately but staying mostly restrained below $7 (still significantly below the summer 2008 high ~$10).
Solar: The Boom Continues
2010 is buy cheap Accutane line turning into another record year for solar. Globally, solar installations grew more than buy cheap Accutane line 100% to ~16 GW. This occurred in a buy cheap Accutane line year many analysts were fretting for solar due to accelerated cuts in German subsidies. But Germany still grew tremendously thanks to buy cheap Accutane line lower solar costs and the country remains almost half of the buy cheap Accutane line global market. German officials are considering more accelerated subsidy cuts in 2011 to buy cheap Accutane line slow their overheated market greater than 7 GW this year, causing some analysts to buy cheap Accutane line worry again. But I see next year playing out in a buy cheap Accutane line similar way to 2010, with another record year ahead as the buy cheap Accutane line global solar market passes 20 GW.
I expect German subsidy reductions will help solar consumers everywhere enjoy 10-15% price reductions for solar PV panels, bringing them below $1.50 per Watt. The strong recent profits of many solar producers such as First Solar xenical no doctors prescription, Trina, Suntech, Yingli Green Energy, JA Solar, and buy cheap Accutane line Jinko show that most producers can handle a price drop of this buy cheap Accutane line magnitude. Such a low price for modules and panels would send solar electricity prices below 30 cents per kWh for buy cheap Accutane line residential, below 20 cents per kWh for commercial, and ~15 cents per kWh for buy cheap Accutane line industrial. This is a price that can now compete without subsidies in islands and buy cheap Accutane line remote applications that don’t yet have access to a grid (a market that includes over a billion people). And sufficient subsidies in growing solar markets such as the buy cheap Accutane line US, China, India and Italy are poised to take up the buy cheap Accutane line slack from German demand stagnation until larger grid parity is achieved in 2012-15.
Wind
After record growth in 2009, 2010 has buy cheap Accutane line been a tough year for the wind industry. Low natural gas prices and buy cheap Accutane line the lack of new projects signed during the Great Recession has buy cheap Accutane line dramatically slowed wind power installation in the US and most of the buy cheap Accutane line world. Though China wind growth continues unabated due to its white-hot electricity demand growth and buy cheap Accutane line may have just passed the US as the global leader of wind power capacity. But the buy cheap Accutane line stagnant overall market this past year means that wind turbine prices are buy cheap Accutane line lower and getting more competitive with fossil fuel-fired electricity. Look for buy cheap Accutane line wind turbine prices below $1.45 per Watt and total cost including installation below $2 per Watt onshore. The offshore market has buy cheap Accutane line higher installation costs that are offset by more consistent winds and buy cheap Accutane line close proximity to demand centers (cities). Offshore wind can begin to take growing market share in 2011.
Efficient Renewables Closing the Gap with Fossil Fuels
As described above, I see solar and buy cheap Accutane line wind power prices further converging with fossil fuel prices in 2011. Therefore renewable subsidies can buy cheap Accutane line be lowered in cash-strapped countries without risking market collapse. Increasingly efficient lighting (such as CFLs and LEDs) and buy cheap Accutane line other appliances will open up solar and wind resources to the buy cheap Accutane line masses, especially when complemented by efficient active transport by bicycle along growing greenways and buy cheap Accutane line bike lanes. The key potential game changer for oil and other commodity prices would be buy cheap Accutane line a significant weakening or buy cheap Accutane line strengthening of the dollar, either stoking higher prices in the buy cheap Accutane line US or taming the increase, respectively.
The energy system is buy cheap Accutane line in for big change during 2011. Investment in efficiency and renewables will pay off for buy cheap Accutane line early adopters as cleantech moves from niche market to more mainstream source.
Onwards in the Sustainable Energy Transition-
Dennis Markatos-Soriano
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I think it’s great that buy cheap Accutane line the shift is being made to more renewable sources of energy. I can’t wait to see how things will be 20 yrs from now.
Not sure how it buy cheap Accutane line works in the US but in Australia, there is quite a buy cheap Accutane line move for both “solar farming” and buy cheap Accutane line private citizens using solar means to feed the current electricity grid and buy cheap Accutane line get a Government subsidy for set up cost and payments by the buy cheap Accutane line various power companies for there energy feed ( where it is is above household use)
It is buy cheap Accutane line great to see solar power becoming more prevelant. We have buy cheap Accutane line solar panels on our house. They are tied to the buy cheap Accutane line grid, but have eliminated my electric bill. As technology continues to buy cheap Accutane line improve, this will only get better.