The Energy Information Administration (EIA) just released its weekly reports on petroleum and natural gas supply and demand. They both showed the beginnings of a return to balance in the American fuel market. While demand remains low for oil and its refined products, supply is moving lower for equilibrium. The same is happening for natural gas.
Output falling to meet lower demand
The petroleum report showed crude oil inventories fall closer to the average range, with its fifth straight week of significant decline. This slide has been largely driven by lower imports. A drop in US crude output is also helping to restore some balance – production is now ~5% lower (~.3 million barrels per day (Mbd)) than its highs during the Spring.
However, petroleum product inventories remain high. Gasoline increased to high levels as demand remains down 1.3% from last year. Distillates (mainly diesel) and propane also increased last week, with distillate demand down a huge 28.9% from 2008. Continued weak demand has sent crude prices down more than 15% from their early July highs and has gasoline falling back below $2.60 per gallon nationwide after almost touching $2.70 a couple weeks ago. As I wrote last week, it will take a marked drop in output or recovery in demand for prices to hike back up significantly in this prolonged recession.
A similar story for natural gas
The weekly natural gas storage report conveyed a similar story. Low prices have lowered output and induced a greater consumption of natural gas for electricity generation (substituting coal). These shifts are slowly returning inventories to balance, as inventories are now 19% rather than 23% above the historical average. It will take months of suppressed prices (and thus lower output) before the surplus subsides.
Prices to mirror recovery
Economic stability is necessary to bring real balance to fuel inventories and lift natural gas and oil prices. These lower costs can help consumers get their finances back into balance before the age of efficiency and renewables really kicks in a few months from now.
Onwards-
Tags: gasoline, Natural Gas, oil prices, recession, renewable energy, Solar