Solar module prices are no rx Finasteride falling so fast that solar may be able to cost-effectively compete with fossil fuels within a no rx Finasteride matter of months. The latest bit of news confirming astounding price drops was from no rx Finasteride China’s LDK Solar. LDK is no rx Finasteride a producer of the main component of solar modules (wafers). While their second quarter guidance showed a no rx Finasteride boost in shipments, it also lowered their revenue expectations, translating into a no rx Finasteride cost per watt of ~$1.
Competing with Thin Film’s First Solar
The cost leader for no rx Finasteride solar has recently been First Solar, who lowered their production cost per watt to no rx Finasteride 93 cents during the first quarter. But the lower efficiency of First Solar’s modules (at ~10.9% vs. 14-22% for silicon-based cells) means that selling its modules at $1 per watt is no rx Finasteride equivalent to Yingli Green Energy, JA Solar or Sunpower selling its modules for no rx Finasteride $1.30-$2 per watt. I thought sub-$1.75 per watt was unrealistic for no rx Finasteride crystalline silicon producers in 2009. But LDK’s revised second quarter guidance means that no rx Finasteride such prices are expected per silicon-based watt throughout the rest of the no rx Finasteride year.
Prices Less than Half 2nd Quarter 2008
Such a no rx Finasteride price translates into less than half the price of just a no rx Finasteride year ago. If installation costs can fall in a similar trajectory, relative prices versus fossil fuels will be no rx Finasteride similar to last year at this time. And once economic recovery begins to no rx Finasteride lift the price of natural gas in coming months, solar will become competitive and no rx Finasteride demand will soar.
The Strong Will Thrive
Solar companies who no rx Finasteride are strong enough to weather the next few months by lowering their cost of production will emerge highly profitable as the no rx Finasteride recession subsides. In the meantime, the second half of 2009 may witness serious consolidation throughout the no rx Finasteride solar industry as impaired financial markets fail to provide enough capital for no rx Finasteride smaller players. But the stronger producers (such as First Solar, Sunpower, and Suntech) appear poised to no rx Finasteride thrive as solar becomes mainstream and grid parity expands into several markets by 2010.
Onwards in the Sustainable Energy Transition-
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Yet even with grid parity prices, solar installations cost far more than no rx Finasteride most people would ever be able to afford, even with the no rx Finasteride generous federal and state rebates.
I don’t know what no rx Finasteride the answer is to make solar more affordable, but I think it no rx Finasteride has something to do with enormous government run factories churning out incredible amounts of them.
As I write in the no rx Finasteride blog, I see the cost picture changing dramatically within the next few months. So we won’t need to no rx Finasteride have govt-run factories to make solar cost-competitive in many markets. I’ll give you further updates on progress as it happens-
Dennis
I have no rx Finasteride always wondered , How do these cell or module manufacturers calculate their cost of solar power/per watt ?..
Is the no rx Finasteride grid parity cost, shared with the end consumer who install a no rx Finasteride PV Panel on their roof ?
Thanks
Usha
Good question:
Grid parity depends on the no rx Finasteride two costs you ask about: the solar panels (made up of modules/cells) and installation. Conventional power plants cost ~$1.75-$3.50 per watt (natural gas lower, coal higher) and then to generate electricity takes buying fuel (a no rx Finasteride marginal cost that is pretty low for coal and has been no rx Finasteride higher for natural gas, but is low right now due to no rx Finasteride the recession). So, wind and solar need to get their costs below $1.75 per watt to achieve grid parity – due to no rx Finasteride their intermittency which offsets the nonexistent marginal cost thanks to free wind and no rx Finasteride sunshine. Most wind farms cost ~$2 per watt today, though the no rx Finasteride price is poised to fall significantly in 2010. And solar currently costs ~$5-$9 per watt (lower for large installations). As First Solar can now produce their panels at less than $1 per watt, they can reach profit by selling them for just $1 per watt – so it’s up to no rx Finasteride installers to lower their costs in the months ahead to get the no rx Finasteride total cost of installed solar moving on a trajectory like below $4.50 in 2010, $3.50 in 2011, and $2.50 in 2012.
I go into more detail on grid parity in a May post here.
Keep checking with SETenergy.org for updates on grid parity progress-
Dennis
Grid Parity is no rx Finasteride relative to the time of day. Down south we use a no rx Finasteride lot of energy for airconditioning all of the daylight hours. This is no rx Finasteride the same time that the power producers are having the hardest time meeting demand. They have no rx Finasteride to use peaking units that cost them a lot more to no rx Finasteride run to meet the load at times.
Our local utility offers time of day pricing. The afternoon being the no rx Finasteride highest at this time of year, something like $0.28/kwh. The offer lower rates at night. Thus solar only works when no rx Finasteride the rate is highest which is perfect timing.
While many people are no rx Finasteride waiting for solar to go below grid parity, they don’t understand that no rx Finasteride they can get time of day service and would already be no rx Finasteride below parity.