Pump prices are about to hit $2.70 per gallon nationwide, and oil has remained above $70 per barrel for several days. Most of the increase has come on expectations of economic recovery – like today’s increase in projection for China’s 2009 growth to 7.2% rather than 6.5% by the World Bank. But even more positive economic news will struggle to increase prices much more unless fuel inventories fall from their current highs.
Petroleum Inventories Remain Very High
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported yesterday in its weekly petroleum report that US crude oil storage fell another ~1% last week. Even so, crude supplies remain more than 10% above average and US output has been rather robust above 5.2 million barrels per day (Mbd). The lower oil rig count in 2009 has yet to lower crude oil production below last year’s levels. Gasoline is the only fuel with below-average inventory levels. And the lower pump price (compared to last year) allowed last week’s gasoline demand to rise 1.1% above the same week in 2008. But demand for distillates (mainly diesel) and propane continued to languish at recessionary low levels — 16.9% and 10.2% lower than last year, respectively. Either further demand recovery or lower output and imports are necessary to drive significant price increases from current levels.
Natural Gas Inventories Sky-High
And the storage level for natural gas has kept prices close to their recent lows below $4.50 per MMBtu. Even though natural gas is substituting coal for electricity generation across much of the Southeast, lower industrial demand and persistent high domestic production have storage levels moving toward record highs. Inventories are almost 23% above average and continue to surprise analysts with its weekly growth.
Higher Oil Prices Spur Hope for Alternatives
Bicycling, pedicabs, solar and wind power, and other alternatives to fossil fuel energy are benefitting from the return of higher oil prices. Oil is now more than double its winter low below $35 per barrel. If non-OPEC output begins to wane in the weeks ahead and the recession does begin to fade, these alternatives may surge forward quickly. I’ll keep you updated on progress in the weeks ahead.
Onwards in the Sustainable Energy Transition-
Tags: climate change, demand, energy, fossil fuels, gas prices, oil prices, recession, supply