Thank you for your feedback. The percentage is an estimate of electricity generation capacity (not nameplate capacity). I matched my numbers up with electricity production from wind of the last few years (using EIA data), and decided to lower my percentage estimates slightly so that they are more conservative (ensuring more credibility to skeptical eyes like yours).

It turns out, US wind electricity production is usually 27-30% of nameplate capacity (1 MW wind turbine will produce ~2,500 MWh per year [365 days * 24 hours * .29]). So the ~28 GW of wind capacity will produce ~71 TWh of electricity in 2009 (though more GW will be installed, probably making the # ~75 TWh (~1.9% of ~3,950 TWh generated)). Again, I’ll report the percentages and totals here at SETenergy.org as they are reported by the EIA.
Onwards-

The claims for Iowa, North Dakota, and Wyoming seem incredible if they are meant to refer to energy actually obtained.

I’m more in line with your thinking and believe with hard work, we can deploy significant efficiency and renewables to make up for potential oil depletion in the years ahead.

While it is possible that the US installs 6.2 GW or even more in 2009, AWEA stressed that some projects are getting delays due to the difficult task of finding financing. It’s possible some of the 3.4 GW under construction are not operational until early 2010. But I have also seen that AWEA likes to surprise folks through conservative estimates that are surpassed… So we’ll see. If wind developers continued at the 1st quarter pace, the US wind market would pass 10 GW!

I’ll keep folks updated on the developments I run into during the coming months.

Onwards to sustainability,

Dennis

You cite 2.8 GW in 1Q09, plus another 3.4 GW for later in the year. That’s a total of 6.2 GW, so why would you predict only 5.5? Are there prospects for delays, or could some of the 2.8 GW have been moved up on the calendar?

I have to disagree with Mr. Angelantoni regarding horizons. Petroleum is getting intrinsically harder to produce, but other sources are staying the same or even getting easier. Wind and solar are on falling price curves, and nuclear technologies are not standing still either. Fast breeders could produce 100 times as much electricity as we’ve already made, using the “depleted uranium” tailings we’ve already mined; thorium breeders can make roughly 4x as much more again, as thorium is about 4 times as abundant as uranium.

What we need to do is quit consuming so much and turn some of our massive resource stream to investment in long-term energy supplies. When there’s still plenty of investment in wind farms with 20+ year lifespans in the midst of a credit crunch, I think things are a lot less gloomy than some people think.

You’re right that last quarter’s quick growth doesn’t ensure future growth and that wind farm financing is currently hard to get.

But I think we will have 5.5+ GW growth for wind in ‘09 (2nd fastest ever after ‘08) and more in ‘10 – increasing the % of US electricity from wind beyond 2% and slowly toward Germany and Spain’s share above 5% in the mid-2010s…

I’ll report developments as they happen right here.

Onwards in the Sustainable Energy Transition-

Dennis

To see into the future, you must look at different data.

Renewable-energy investments drop globally
http://tr.im/k1Zt

Clean-Tech Venture Financing Plunges
http://tr.im/k1ZM

That’s because we have, in my view, entered the Period of Receding Horizons. The point at which we get off fossil fuels (”the horizon”) is now getting further away rather than closer. Actually, it wasn’t even getting closer before this economic decline since fossil fuel production had been growing faster in energy terms than renewable energy production, but the point still stands.

For an explanation of why I think this is so, please see:
You’ve Bought Your Last Car
http://tr.im/jKvr