I braced myself for the American Wind Energy Association’s quarterly report, thinking the sinking economy would lead to slower wind deployment in the US. But then I got the just-released report, and they showed another record wind deployment for the first quarter! The US added 2.8 GW from January-March, twice the growth in the same period of 2008 and the highest amount recorded during a first quarter.
Extending the US Lead in Wind
The US now has a total wind power capacity of 28.2 GW, enough to provide ~2% of our electricity demand. The growth widens our lead over Germany as the world’s top wind power producer. Another 3.4 GW are under construction for later in the year, so it looks likely 2009 will witness at least the second largest growth after 2008’s record 8.5 GW.
TX Advances and Smaller States Emerge
Texas installed the most new wind, increasing its huge cumulative total to almost 8 GW (more than double 2nd place Iowa). As I wrote over the last several weeks, New York and Kansas joined the 1 GW club as aggregate deployers #7 and #8, with Illinois poised to join this quarter.
The quickest percentage growth was Indiana’s 75% to .531 GW, Maine’s 55% to .104 GW, Nebraska’s 53% to .153 GW, Idaho’s 49% to .147 GW, and New York’s 34% to 1.261 GW.
Top Wind States by Percentage Shift
The states with the top wind share capability in their electricity mix shuffled a bit as their percentages grew [these data was revised Thursday, April 30th to be conservative].
- Iowa (over 18% of its electricity from wind)
- North Dakota (just below 18%)
- Wyoming (~15%)
- Oregon (~8%, up from #6)
- Minnesota (~7.5%, down from #4)
- Kansas (~7%, up from #9)
- South Dakota & New Mexico (~6.5%, up from # 11 & down from #5)
9. Texas (just under 6.5%, down from #8)
10. Colorado (~6%, down from #7)
The national average was pulled up to ~1.8% by my calculations. We’ll see if that pans out in the EIA electricity reports during the months ahead.
The percentage top 10 will remain mostly intact during the rest of 2009, with the possibility of Texas climbing up even though its electricity demand base is so high. Wyoming may hit 18% and North Dakota may pass Iowa for the top spot. I’ll let you know as the news happens here at SETenergy.org
Onwards in the Sustainable Energy Transition-
Tags: 2009, climate change, global warming, renewable, sustainable, US energy, wind power
That data point only demonstrates what has happened in the past.
To see into the future, you must look at different data.
Renewable-energy investments drop globally
http://tr.im/k1Zt
Clean-Tech Venture Financing Plunges
http://tr.im/k1ZM
That’s because we have, in my view, entered the Period of Receding Horizons. The point at which we get off fossil fuels (”the horizon”) is now getting further away rather than closer. Actually, it wasn’t even getting closer before this economic decline since fossil fuel production had been growing faster in energy terms than renewable energy production, but the point still stands.
For an explanation of why I think this is so, please see:
You’ve Bought Your Last Car
http://tr.im/jKvr
Thanks for your comment.
You’re right that last quarter’s quick growth doesn’t ensure future growth and that wind farm financing is currently hard to get.
But I think we will have 5.5+ GW growth for wind in ‘09 (2nd fastest ever after ‘08) and more in ‘10 – increasing the % of US electricity from wind beyond 2% and slowly toward Germany and Spain’s share above 5% in the mid-2010s…
I’ll report developments as they happen right here.
Onwards in the Sustainable Energy Transition-
Dennis
Jerome Guillet pointed out your news item to the staff of The Oil Drum.
You cite 2.8 GW in 1Q09, plus another 3.4 GW for later in the year. That’s a total of 6.2 GW, so why would you predict only 5.5? Are there prospects for delays, or could some of the 2.8 GW have been moved up on the calendar?
I have to disagree with Mr. Angelantoni regarding horizons. Petroleum is getting intrinsically harder to produce, but other sources are staying the same or even getting easier. Wind and solar are on falling price curves, and nuclear technologies are not standing still either. Fast breeders could produce 100 times as much electricity as we’ve already made, using the “depleted uranium” tailings we’ve already mined; thorium breeders can make roughly 4x as much more again, as thorium is about 4 times as abundant as uranium.
What we need to do is quit consuming so much and turn some of our massive resource stream to investment in long-term energy supplies. When there’s still plenty of investment in wind farms with 20+ year lifespans in the midst of a credit crunch, I think things are a lot less gloomy than some people think.
Thanks for your comment and question.
I’m more in line with your thinking and believe with hard work, we can deploy significant efficiency and renewables to make up for potential oil depletion in the years ahead.
While it is possible that the US installs 6.2 GW or even more in 2009, AWEA stressed that some projects are getting delays due to the difficult task of finding financing. It’s possible some of the 3.4 GW under construction are not operational until early 2010. But I have also seen that AWEA likes to surprise folks through conservative estimates that are surpassed… So we’ll see. If wind developers continued at the 1st quarter pace, the US wind market would pass 10 GW!
I’ll keep folks updated on the developments I run into during the coming months.
Onwards to sustainability,
Dennis
Re the section, “Top Wind States by Percentage Shift”, I am always suspicious of claims for electricity obtained from wind that are not explicit as to whether the claim refers to nameplate maximum power or energy actually obtained.
The claims for Iowa, North Dakota, and Wyoming seem incredible if they are meant to refer to energy actually obtained.
David-
Thank you for your feedback. The percentage is an estimate of electricity generation capacity (not nameplate capacity). I matched my numbers up with electricity production from wind of the last few years (using EIA data), and decided to lower my percentage estimates slightly so that they are more conservative (ensuring more credibility to skeptical eyes like yours).
It turns out, US wind electricity production is usually 27-30% of nameplate capacity (1 MW wind turbine will produce ~2,500 MWh per year [365 days * 24 hours * .29]). So the ~28 GW of wind capacity will produce ~71 TWh of electricity in 2009 (though more GW will be installed, probably making the # ~75 TWh (~1.9% of ~3,950 TWh generated)). Again, I’ll report the percentages and totals here at SETenergy.org as they are reported by the EIA.
Onwards-