Once the biggest oil field in the hemisphere, production from Mexico’s Cantarell continues to decline at an astounding rate. This past January, output was down 38% (!) from January 2008. This collapse sent total Mexican crude oil production down by ~9.5% to 2.685 million barrels per day (Mbd). Total liquids (including natural gas liquids) fell a slightly more tame 7.4% to 3.05 Mbd.
This continues the recent production plateau just above 3 Mbd that I brought up a few weeks back to five months. Cantarell production for January was .772 Mbd, a mere 25% of Mexico’s total production after being a majority of their production a few short years ago. One bright spot is the steady rise in output of the Ku-Maloob-Zaap (KMZ) field, which just became the biggest producing field at .787 Mbd. If PeMex can keep KMZ steady and increase Chicontepec in the months ahead, we may see a slower production decline than the 9.2% of 2008.
Bottom Line: One thing is clear — the US cannot rely on oil imports from Mexico beyond 2012. The fall of Cantarell continues at alarming speed and Mexico has few fields capable to pick up the slack. Since Mexico is not alone in its decline, a transition away from foreign oil is imperative going forward — and SET encourages the US and others to use this opportunity to also mitigate climate change by employing more efficiency and renewables.
Pemex just found a fiel even more big than Cantarell.But I agree with you that alternative energies have to be the priority.
DForce,
Could you back up your claim that PeMex found such a large field? I haven’t heard that. KMZ and Chicontepec are sizable fields, but not the size of Cantarell. Brazil has some large fields they have found offshore in the last couple of years, but still not as big as Cantarell. My guess is that new fields found in Mexico will allow the country to keep production above 2 million barrels per day (Mbd) through the 2010s – but at a level that takes away their stature as a major exporter of > 1 Mbd.
We’ll see how their production develops-
Dennis