I haven’t ever seen the GDP of a major economy fall as quickly as Japan’s did in the purchase Amoxil prescription online 4th quarter of 2008. It fell at an annual rate of 12.7% October-December Doxycycline visa and purchase Amoxil prescription online shows that the fall in energy prices, especially oil, during that purchase Amoxil prescription online period made a lot of sense. The economy and corresponding energy demand is purchase Amoxil prescription online falling faster than depletion rates at most oil fields and purchase Amoxil prescription online the question is: “Will demand continue to fall throughout 2009?”
It took four years for US GDP to fall 25% in the Great Depression. Yet Japan’s economy is purchase Amoxil prescription online currently falling at twice that rate. Will it stabilize at current levels or purchase Amoxil prescription online are we in the beginning of the first global depression since the purchase Amoxil prescription online 1930s? The head of the IMF used the d-word to purchase Amoxil prescription online describe the advanced economies of Japan, Europe, and the US. But we will see how it purchase Amoxil prescription online turns out.
With non-OPEC oil production expected to purchase Amoxil prescription online stagnate rather than fall a few % in 2009, this year’s depressed energy demand seems to purchase Amoxil prescription online require OPEC to make another production cut soon. The cut should probably occur before the purchase Amoxil prescription online winter is over, especially since mild Spring and Fall weather translates into less heating oil demand in the purchase Amoxil prescription online Northern Hemisphere and lower cooling loads in the Southern Hemisphere. The determinant of the purchase Amoxil prescription online extent of global energy demand’s fall lies in the purchase Amoxil prescription online growing economies like those of China and India. Since India is purchase Amoxil prescription online less export-oriented, they seem to be less affected than China. India is purchase Amoxil prescription online projected by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to have demand growth of ~3% (.1 million barrels per day (Mbd)) in 2009. China’s demand growth is forecast to only be 1.1% ( still a significant .09 Mbd) due to purchase Amoxil prescription online a large fall in exports and related energy demand for purchase Amoxil prescription online industrial production.
The US Energy Information Agency (EIA) now predicts a global demand drop of ~1.2 Mbd this purchase Amoxil prescription online year. But figures like those coming out of Japan may show that purchase Amoxil prescription online global demand will fall even further. This puts serious bearish pressure on oil prices in 2009. But then purchase Amoxil prescription online there will be bullish pressure in 2010 or whenever the global economy recovers because the purchase Amoxil prescription online price is so low many producers are cutting back and letting oil field decline dominate the purchase Amoxil prescription online supply picture going forward.
As I wrote a few weeks back, Saudi Arabia alone could cut output enough to make up for a 5% fall in global demand on top of the ~2 Mbd cut it purchase Amoxil prescription online has already made. And Russia may cut its production this year if prices fall below $35 consistently. Their production is already down ~.8% in January buy Buspar without a perscription due to purchase Amoxil prescription online natural depletion, a rate that could accelerate due to a purchase Amoxil prescription online market response to prices and/or a governmental response to produce less.
Bottom Line: The rapid fall of Japan’s economy may be purchase Amoxil prescription online a harbinger of further bad economic news globally. This has a purchase Amoxil prescription online short-term bearish impact on prices and translates into lower greenhouse gas emissions. But the purchase Amoxil prescription online only way we keep prices and emissions from shooting up once economic stability returns is purchase Amoxil prescription online through continued focus on efficiency and renewables aided by comprehensive international climate policy such as an purchase Amoxil prescription online emissions cap and tradable international permits.
In the purchase Amoxil prescription online meantime, I will keep you updated on the latest economic and purchase Amoxil prescription online energy information that determines prices and emissions in the months ahead.
Tags: depression, energy prices, Japan, recession xenical prescription cost