The continued economic struggles in 2009 are hitting carbon-intensive activity especially hard. So says the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) in its updated Short Term Energy Outlook released this afternoon. Global oil demand is now expected to fall by 1.2 million barrels per day (1.4%) and global GDP is expected to grow only .1% this year.
The projected slide in US GDP got deeper than their January report, at 2.7% rather than 2%. This translates into lower energy consumption and lower combustion of fossil fuels. US petroleum use is expected to fall ~2.4% (.46 million barrels per day (Mbd)) in 2009, less than half of the 5.8% (1.2 Mbd) drop in 2008 when prices were so high. But consumption declines accelerate for coal and natural gas, dropping ~1.3% for both in 2009 compared to a .5% drop and small growth in 2008, respectively.
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
The latest estimates based on EIA energy consumption data are that US carbon dioxide emissions dropped ~2.8% in 2008. And emissions look poised to fall more than 2% again in 2009. Such a drop would put 2009 emissions at less than 10% above 1990 levels, putting 1990 levels within reach by 2016, if not before. Emissions would need to fall an average of 1.3% per year to accomplish such a goal, made possible in large part by cutting our use of expensive foreign oil.
The path would need to be paved by efficiency upgrades along with solar and wind deployment to provide the new electricity needed in 2010 and beyond to power an economic recovery in America. The current stimulus package appears ready to make such a trajectory reality. Let’s make it happen!
Tags: carbon dioxide, climate change, global warming, recession, US emissions