Driven by white-hot economic growth, China carbon dioxide emissions have been increasing at a rate that put fear in the hearts of most climate scientists. But the export-oriented growth of the past several years has imploded on a crash in demand for Chinese products from recession-hit consumers in Japan, the US, and Europe. After years of almost double-digit energy demand growth, the fourth quarter of 2008 was three straight months of energy demand below the year-ago average.
As I wrote last month, emissions actually fall faster than energy demand because hydroelectric plants and other renewables keep running so the more carbon-intensive coal plants are cut the most. In December, energy demand is reported down ~6.4% with thermal plants (mainly coal) generating ~9% less electricity. Aggregating these numbers with those in October and November (of 4% and 7% reduction, respectively), brings energy demand of almost 6% below last year. Converting these totals to carbon emissions translates into a drop of almost 10%. To be more conservative (allowing for revisions of the data in the months ahead), China’s greenhouse gas emissions fell at least 5% in the last quarter of 2008!
If this level of emissions reduction occurs throughout 2009, it would be a monumental reversal for the climate. China has a strong stimulus package aimed to get growth going again that include energy-intensive infrastructure projects, so that may make up for some of the recessionary emissions reduction. And hopefully our global economy will regain its footing by the second half of 2009. So, for these emissions reductions of late to continue to provide climate hope, we need to help China integrate state-of-the-art energy efficiency into its economy while of course doing the same here at home in the US.
Bottom line: The sharp emissions drop of the last quarter show that, contrary to recent conventional wisdom, it is not inevitable that China emissions will skyrocket in perpetuity. Since their per capita energy demand is so low, emissions will probably grow. But with an acceleration of efficiency integration in China, their emissions can look more like a plateau than their recent hockey stick — giving the US, Europe and Japan the opportunity to lower global emissions through their own efficiency and renewables deployment.
Tags: China, climate change, Coal, demand, efficiency, energy, global warming