With the price of oil pretty low below $45 per barrel and uk buy valtrex global demand falling, it seems to be a silly time to uk buy valtrex bring up supply worries. But recent numbers on Russian oil production and uk buy valtrex some other major non-OPEC producers show we need to keep our eye on this uk buy valtrex biggest source of world energy. Russian oil output has been down throughout 2008 but a recent article Xenical cheap overnight fedex Accutane mastercard buy Valtrex Online zovirax from mexico order no online rx Flomaxreported that declines accelerated in December, from a less than 1% decline to a 1.6% decline. Countries like Mexico, the uk buy valtrex UK, and Norway had similarly low decline rates before their production started tanking at current rates as fast as ~10% per year. If Russia were to uk buy valtrex begin declining at a similar pace, the tale of peak oil production may become a uk buy valtrex reality very soon. The risk is that non-OPEC production would fall so much that uk buy valtrex OPEC would have almost complete control of the oil market and uk buy valtrex allow prices to rise beyond their highs of last summer.
A Little Historical Background
Non-OPEC production has uk buy valtrex been on a rough plateau since 2004. It fell slightly in 2005 then uk buy valtrex increased a bit in 2006 and 2007. For 2008, the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) predicted that non-OPEC production would increase ~1 million barrels per day. Non-OPEC producers certainly had uk buy valtrex a price signal from high oil prices to increase their production in 2008. But instead, overall non-OPEC output was down ~300,000 barrels per day (b/d). In December, the EIA predicted an increase of ~400,000 b/d — with much of that uk buy valtrex occurring in the US, Brazil, and Azerbaijan. Such an increase would require OPEC producers to uk buy valtrex keep their production at current levels or to drop even further to uk buy valtrex maintain current prices amid the recession.
But the uk buy valtrex non-OPEC production increase the EIA expects could evaporate just like in 2008 or uk buy valtrex even worse. Norway expects its oil production to fall ~9.7% buy xenical paypal without rx Xenical overnight cod Online xenical — which means a drop of ~200,000 b/d. Mexico expects production ~3 million b/d, or a drop of ~170,000 b/d. The UK will probably fall at least another 100,000 b/d. And now Russian production is uk buy valtrex more suspect. If their output falls 2%, that means a drop of ~200,000 b/d. That 700,000 b/d of non-OPEC declines may be uk buy valtrex difficult for other producers to offset. And the low price signal supports little new production to uk buy valtrex offset mature field declines.
US production is projected to increase by ~400,000 b/d on less hurricanes and uk buy valtrex some new fields ramping up. But the first week of US production was below its 2008 level — so we will have uk buy valtrex to see big change for EIA projections to become reality. The supply constraints do not equate to uk buy valtrex a scary first half of 2009 because demand has fallen so dramatically. But if economic recovery tries to uk buy valtrex pick up in the second half of this year or in 2010, we shouldn’t count on large increases in non-OPEC oil to fuel it.
Bottom line: The potentially declining non-OPEC supply picture is uk buy valtrex another reason we should all help Obama transform the US energy system through a uk buy valtrex Green Stimulus Package. Economic growth can be securely built on the uk buy valtrex efficient use of renewables for future demand growth and through substituting some of the uk buy valtrex carbon-emitting fossil fuels upon which we now depend.
Onwards in the Sustainable Energy Transition!
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