Coal was almost as volatile as oil and purchase xenical free consultation natural gas in 2008, with its global trade price down more than purchase xenical free consultation 50% since the purchase xenical free consultation summer. While North American natural gas and global oil prices are purchase xenical free consultation poised for rebound since they have fallen below the higher marginal cost of production, coal production costs remain below current prices by most accounts. Therefore, coal prices have purchase xenical free consultation substantial room to fall if economic conditions continue to deteriorate. Below are purchase xenical free consultation some thoughts on coal supply and demand as we all prepare for purchase xenical free consultation the year ahead.
The recession has purchase xenical free consultation brought stagnation to demand growth throughout the world, even in China as I shared a few weeks back. It looks as though global demand growth may stop in its tracks after a purchase xenical free consultation higher than 4% speed in 2006 and purchase xenical free consultation 2007. If Chinese and Indian exports continue below year-ago levels and purchase xenical free consultation renewables continue to grow, we may even see lower coal consumption worldwide in 2009. This scenario would be purchase xenical free consultation a beneficial outcome for the climate that can give hope to purchase xenical free consultation international negotiations achieving lower emissions in the 2010s and beyond.
Coal supply seems to purchase xenical free consultation have higher growth potential than oil and natural gas due to purchase xenical free consultation the low costs of production and its widespread and vast reserves. The absence of a purchase xenical free consultation coal “OPEC” helps ensure a purchase xenical free consultation secure supply of the fuel in the years ahead. This is purchase xenical free consultation especially the case in the US — the site of more than a quarter of global reserves.
A key driver in coal’s price is purchase xenical free consultation climate policy since coal consumption emits the most carbon dioxide (~20% more than oil and ~75% more than natural gas). But an interesting potential result of a carbon tax or cap & trade system is purchase xenical free consultation less change in the price of coal electricity than one would think. Lower coal demand may lower coal’s price enough to purchase xenical free consultation make up for half of the higher carbon charge, especially if wind and purchase xenical free consultation solar significantly drop in price towards grid parity. And down the purchase xenical free consultation road — while clean coal is purchase xenical free consultation no reality today, I hope Princeton scientists and others make advances in carbon capture and purchase xenical free consultation sequestration for future coal plants and we all deploy more scrubbers and purchase xenical free consultation improved policy to clean up the current coal mining and combustion of today.
Coal has a wide price range potential to me (like oil and natural gas) since its price could fall as well as rise. I put the purchase xenical free consultation range for traded coal at $50-$100 from today’s ~$80 per metric ton. The average US price may fall if electric consumption falls a purchase xenical free consultation great deal in the US and its main coal export market of Europe.
Bottom line: Unlike oil and purchase xenical free consultation natural gas, coal prices have significant room to fall from today’s levels. While coal may run into production constraints like we see in the purchase xenical free consultation oil sector already, we have many years of strong growth potential between then purchase xenical free consultation and now. Consumption levels will be determined by climate policy and purchase xenical free consultation the advance of price competitiveness by wind, solar and efficiency upgrades.
Onwards in the sustainable energy transition-
Tags: 2009, Coal buy Accutane online without script, demand, energy, supply
To be part of a “sustainable energy transition”, many of the purchase xenical free consultation environmental impacts of the coal would need to be addressed / mitigated. However, the image, and concept itself, of “clean coal” has purchase xenical free consultation been severely tarnished in public perceptions by some recent events (Tennessee coal as spill, etc.)
So will the new phrase now be “sustainable coal”? Somehow that purchase xenical free consultation does not seem to be a term that would fare any better than purchase xenical free consultation “clean coal”…
Thanks for your comment-
I completely agree that purchase xenical free consultation coal has a long way to go to earn credit as “clean” or “sustainable.” Here’s hoping that the industry will make real progress (not just PR progress) and purchase xenical free consultation that efficiency will be deployed and renewables will take greater market share from purchase xenical free consultation coal.
Onwards to sustainability,
Dennis
A coal spill has nothing to do with “clean coal.” The term comes from purchase xenical free consultation it burning in our power plants and not emitting the harmful gases that purchase xenical free consultation it once did. Coal is purchase xenical free consultation a resource we have in America and is a great export for purchase xenical free consultation our country. Education is needed about its’ positives and negatives. Considering it purchase xenical free consultation is an asset we have in the United States I feel it purchase xenical free consultation is something we should research instead of writing off as “evil.” This Christmas I decided to purchase xenical free consultation look at the bottom of each of my kids toys as they opened them, all were made in a purchase xenical free consultation foreign country. I have purchase xenical free consultation nothing against imports but I do have something against our country letting our dollars and purchase xenical free consultation jobs go overseas. Invest in coal; at the purchase xenical free consultation very least it is something we can use to power our homes and purchase xenical free consultation EXPORT to other countries.
Thanks for sharing-
I agree that we need to make the best of our local/regional resources when purchase xenical free consultation it comes to energy. Solar in the Southwest, wind the the purchase xenical free consultation Great Plains, natural gas in gas-producing regions, and coal in coal-producing regions (as long as we can continue to clean up its operations — its greenhouse gas emissions, sulfur dioxide pollution, coal ash slurry spills, mercury, etc.). And efficiency is purchase xenical free consultation the path to making our improvements cost-effective for the services we receive from purchase xenical free consultation energy (lighting, heat, refrigerators, computers, and cell phones, etc.).
Here’s to purchase xenical free consultation us all working hard toward a Sustainable Energy Transition in the purchase xenical free consultation years ahead-