The preliminary EIA estimates for US electricity use in October point to even deeper carbon dioxide emission reduction than I reported last week. The data are presented in their Electric Power Flash. Although the data will be refined in the weeks ahead, these estimates have big implications on our fossil fuel consumption and thus our greenhouse gas emissions.
The EIA estimate October electricity generation was down ~4%. This led to another massive drop in consumption of natural gas ~13.8%, coal ~4.4%, and petroleum liquids ~48%. Hydropower generation increased ~10.9%, nuclear increased ~1.8%, and other (wind, biomass and solar) were up ~2.6%.
Year-to-date totals were even more climate-friendly than post-September estimates. Total electricity generation is now down ~1.1% while low-carbon nuclear and hydro generation were flat and up ~5.6%, respectively. Coal combustion for electricity has fallen a significant ~.5%, natural gas a whopping ~7.5%, and oil an even bigger ~42.5%.
If November and December electricity data follow these trends closely, it is possible that they make 2008 emissions more than 3% below their 2007 level. I will keep track of the data as it comes in and report it to you on this blog.
It will be interesting to see the more refined estimates for October when they come out in another few weeks (especially with wind generation totals parsed out). If these numbers hold and the electricity demand reduction trend continued in November and this month, 1990 emissions levels will get within reach. If we were to extend this year’s rate of ~3% cut in emissions annually, we could be at 1990 levels by the end of Obama’s first term in 2012.
Tags: carbon dioxide emissions, climate change, Electricity, energy, US