Delta just announced they plan to cut their flights 6-8% in 2009. Other airlines appear poised for similar announcements as the deepening recession cuts passenger demand. Therefore, 2009 could be another year of sharp greenhouse gas emission reductions similar to the ~2.5% 2008 drop.
With yesterday’s report that November US industrial production contracted at the fastest rate since 1982, it appears US fossil fuel consumption will continue to fall. This will lower prices of the fuels and make goals such as 1990 emissions by 2020 much more easy to imagine us achieving. We were almost 16% above 1990 levels in 2007. But by the end of next year I project emissions will be less than 12% above 1990 levels based on the EIA data I discuss here. If we can keep our renewable energy industries healthy during the coming year, they will be poised to enable emissions reduction through economic growth in 2010+ rather than the mostly recession-induced emission drops of 2008-09. They can emerge with much lower costs as the prices of major components such as polysilicon, steel, and copper fall from recent highs.
Tomorrow will be full of news. I’ll report on the US oil inventory report and also begin to explore a growing trend of lower electricity consumption around the US. If lower demand persists it would have major implications for emissions and help lower the need for new carbon dioxide-belching power plants in the future.