Thanks to consumption of oil falling 3.5%+ in 2008, it looks like US greenhouse gas emissions will fall greater than 1% this year. The rapid fall in oil consumption is tempered by the increase in emissions from slightly greater coal demand and an increase in consumption of cleaner-burning natural gas. If the overall trend continues through December, it will put us on track to meet the federal cap & trade legislation goal of 1990 emissions by 2020. To then meet the 80% below 1990 level by 2050, as the UK committed to this week, we will need to ramp up our rate of emissions reduction to ~5% per year for the following 30 years. This will definitely take some political will from the next President and Congress, but appears to be very feasible based on trends already developing.
For instance, as many predict a peak in global oil production within the next seven years, consumption of this largest source of US emissions should naturally fall in the years ahead. ln fact, the 2007 level of greenhouse gas emissions may end up being our peak. The federal cap & trade system that incentivizes efficiency, wind, natural gas and solar over coal is important to ensure the substitution of oil energy by cleaner burning fuels. Public commitment to climate stewardship, along with continued innovation by public and private institutions, can make the sustainable energy transition a path to economic prosperity for the US and unprecedented global partnership among nations.
The 2008 US emissions reduction may be matched in many developed countries, but the trend of emissions growth continues globally due to rapid increases in the developing world. China has become the world’s largest polluter and their consumption of coal grows at a ferocious rate. But US emissions on a per capita basis remain four times those in China and more than five times those in India. Therefore, to achieve the G8 goal of halving global emissions by 2050, developed countries aim to cut GHGs by 80%, leaving developing countries the responsibility of cutting emissions ~20% by that date. Some climate activists such as NASA’s James Hansen and Bill McKibben encourage even quicker emissions reduction, provided optimal policies are put in place to support wind and solar innovation and deployment at current growth rates for many years to come. If more institutions of higher education step up to model rapid emissions reduction, they can inspire progress throughout the world.
In sum, the US is making climate progress in 2008 due to lower oil consumption (mainly from driving less and more efficiently). Continuing and accelerating the sustainable energy transition taking place in 2008 here will help us to get global emissions to acceptable levels in the decades to come.
Tags: clean energy, climate change, oil demand, US