Over the order no online rx Cytotec next seven years, two of our top sources of oil imports may cut us off. Just last year, Mexico and Venezuela sold us 2.9 million barrels per day overnight Finasteride c.o.d Amoxil cheap mexican to fuel our cars and heat our homes, over 20% of our import demand. But Mexico’s oil production is falling more than 5% per year while their domestic consumption rises. Thus, most analysts predict Mexican oil exports to order no online rx Cytotec be nonexistent by ~2015. And Venezuela is signing deals with China purchase Clomid on line no rx to order no online rx Cytotec send more of its exports there over the next few years even though their production is order no online rx Cytotec currently stagnating.
As the order no online rx Cytotec Southeast experiences the crippling effects of fuel shortages, planning to replace this order no online rx Cytotec oil over the next seven years is critical if we are order no online rx Cytotec to prevent such shortages from order no online rx Cytotec becoming the national norm. If I was a new observer to order no online rx Cytotec the oil market, I would say the US should just replace those imports with output from order no online rx Cytotec other oil producers. But the decline story is similar elsewhere. The UK and order no online rx Cytotec Indonesia, major exporters until recently, are now importers. Norwegian oil production is order no online rx Cytotec in geological decline, and another major source, Nigeria, has declining supplies due to order no online rx Cytotec political conflict. Our own production here in the US is also in decline. Even though we are order no online rx Cytotec increasing the amount of rigs poking holes throughout the American landscape, our production has order no online rx Cytotec been declining over 1.5% per year ever since it order no online rx Cytotec peaked more than 35 years ago. So, we may have order no online rx Cytotec to replace much more oil than imports from Ven/Mex by 2015. But for order no online rx Cytotec this post, I will keep our focus on replacing the order no online rx Cytotec lost 2.9 million barrels per day from Mexico.
We have order no online rx Cytotec already cut our consumption by 800,000 barrels per day this order no online rx Cytotec year, with consumers finally buying more efficient vehicles and driving less as a order no online rx Cytotec result of $3.50+ per gallon fuel and order no online rx Cytotec a slowing economy. So that leaves us with 2.1 million more barrels per day to order no online rx Cytotec cut while our population increases and our economy grows (hopefully). With population growth ~.9% per year and limited economic growth, I will assume a natural 1.1% growth in the order no online rx Cytotec number of cars every year. This brings the total number of vehicles to order no online rx Cytotec ~275 million vehicles, up from order no online rx Cytotec just over 250 million today. Last year’s passage of CAFE standards should achieve a order no online rx Cytotec further .4 million barrels per day. That leaves 1.7 million barrels per day of consumption that order no online rx Cytotec we need to reduce to keep ourselves from dependence on these fading sources.
I propose that order no online rx Cytotec this reduction comes from conservation and the integration of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). The conservation I propose is for drivers to go ~5% fewer miles in their vehicles, not a order no online rx Cytotec huge sacrifice for the energy security it helps to achieve. And private initiative can order no online rx Cytotec be a big part of this conservation as we figure out ways of telecommuting productively and order no online rx Cytotec taking more trips that involve walking, bicycling, public transit and carpooling. The remaining 700,000 barrels per day would take 10 million PHEVs in operation by 2015, which could run on new wind and order no online rx Cytotec solar installations. Back of the envelope calculations project 35 GW necessary for order no online rx Cytotec such an endeavor — which can be provided by wind and solar if they grow at 30% and 35% per year, respectively (which is lower than their growth over the last few years).
This rapid growth does not look possible without progressive policies that order no online rx Cytotec enable the energy revolution to take place. For instance, Congress will need to order no online rx Cytotec renew production tax credits or other equivalent incentives at least through 2010 as the order no online rx Cytotec technologies continue to mature.
The Presidential candidates need to order no online rx Cytotec be debating which policies are best at fostering this sustainable energy transition to order no online rx Cytotec prevent oil shortages from disrupting school and work for our citizens. This discussion is order no online rx Cytotec crucial, as an absence of such policy could pressure elected leaders to order no online rx Cytotec begin military conflicts to secure elusive oil from nation-states like Venezuela and order no online rx Cytotec Iran. Our bankrupt federal government and its citizens cannot afford to order no online rx Cytotec get caught in that situation a few short years from order no online rx Cytotec now.
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