The bullish weekly oil report that I predicted arrived on schedule. But the oil markets largely ignored it. Crude supplies fell 5.9 million barrels (Mb) but remain in the average range while gasoline supplies fell a huge 6.5 Mb to an extremely low level for this time of year. Hurricane Ike has strengthened and will keep Gulf production low for at least another week.
OPEC made the move everyone was expecting, holding its quota at about the same level while saying its members will stop overproducing beyond their quota. But mixed signals were coming from Saudi Arabia, the major overproducer, as they said they would not change their production strategy. If the oil price falls much below $100, OPEC will likely cut production quotas at its December meeting.
The key bearish signals oil markets grasped onto were reduced demand and the dollar’s strengthening to ~$1.40 per euro as EU analysts cut their region’s economic growth forecasts.
The market again turns to Hurricane Ike, which has just strengthened to become a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 100 mph. Ike is expected to become a Category 3 hurricane by tomorrow and churn toward hitting the Texas coast by Saturday morning. Ike is a huge storm with Tropical Storm winds extending out 205 miles from its eye. How much will it strengthen in the Gulf? How close will it get to the concentration of rigs near the Texas/Louisiana border? And how many refineries will be affected by its wind and rain? Those are the questions driving the market in the days ahead, alongside data from the EIA natural gas report I will share tomorrow.
Tags: Hurricane Gustav, Hurricane Ike, Oil, OPEC