Archive for August, 2008
Friday, August 15th, 2008
While the US natural gas market is well-supplied due to rapid increases in domestic production, global LNG markets appear to remain tight enough to cause record prices this winter as high as $25 per MBtu. Such a price would be much higher than the price of wind power and would probably lower US LNG imports even lower than their 50% drop so far this year.
In coal, major global ports had rising prices for the first time in weeks.
With oil, a stronger and stronger dollar is fueling 23% lower prices than the recent record. News of economic contraction in Europe and Japan from the second quarter drove further dollar gains on the euro to 8.5% since hitting a record low in early July (from $1.6038 to $1.467). Will the dollar strengthen enough to prevent high inflation from lowering our standard of living further? And can we deploy efficiency and renewables fast enough to stabilize our energy costs? These are important questions that will hopefully guide good policy decisions by the candidates of this critical 2008 election.
Tags: Coal, Natural Gas, Oil
Posted in Coal, Daily Recap, Natural Gas, Oil | No Comments »
Thursday, August 14th, 2008
As I mentioned yesterday, the American Wind Energy Association released another encouraging quarterly report. The US industry installed 1.2 GW of wind turbines in the second quarter, bringing the first half total to 2.7 GW — a pace that would beat last year’s record of 5.2 GW. But it gets even better. There are ~9 GW in the installation queue across the country and ~5 of them are likely to be installed by year’s end. Such olympic growth (~7.5 GW) would be 45% faster than last year’s world record, and would increase our capacity by ~45% from 16.8 GW to over 24 GW. If Germany grows at the same pace of last year (~1.6 GW to 23.8 GW), we would overtake them to become the world’s leading (more…)
Tags: Natural Gas, Wind
Posted in Daily Recap, Electricity, Natural Gas, Wind | No Comments »
Wednesday, August 13th, 2008
The EIA weekly report released information that US petroleum supplies fell dramatically last week. While crude dipped only slightly, gasoline dove 6.4 million barrels (3.1%) and distillates fell 1.7 Mb. Along with the Georgia-Russia conflict, this news should put at least a temporary halt to price slides.
And the exciting trend is that while oil becomes harder to find and produce, we are getting much better at extracting natural gas from domestic fields. The EIA Short Term Energy Outlook raised its estimate of 2008 natural gas production to (more…)
Tags: climate change, Natural Gas, Oil, Wind
Posted in Climate Change, Daily Recap, Electricity, Natural Gas, Oil, Wind | No Comments »
Tuesday, August 12th, 2008
One important point I try to remind folks is that while the price of fossil fuels has risen dramatically these past seven years, the price of wind and solar is significantly lower. The question is, when might the cost curves converge?
Wind is already converging with electricity from fuel oil and is close to electricity from natural gas at times. But a wide gap remains between wind and (more…)
Tags: fossil fuels, Oil, Solar, Wind
Posted in Coal, Daily Recap, Electricity, Natural Gas, Oil, Solar, Wind | No Comments »
Monday, August 11th, 2008
The EIA weekly coal report showed a stable price from most basins. The change occurred in the most expensive coal, Northern Appalachian, which fell 2% to $146 per short ton, and Illinois Basin coal, which rose 33.8% to $95. Prices are double to triple the level they were just last year, pressuring utilities to raise electricity prices in the months ahead to recover the higher costs.
In oil, crude oil imports by China in July were actually lower than their year ago level. There are different rationales put forward like (more…)
Tags: China, oil prices, US coal
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Friday, August 8th, 2008
I’ve been spending the last few days in my home state of North Carolina meeting with many of the organizations that are moving climate and energy policy forward here. From the North Carolina Sustainable Energy Association and Environmental Defense to the NC Waste Awareness and Reduction Network and Interfaith Power & Light, these groups helped to pass the first Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard in the Southeast — a commitment to produce at least 12.5% of its electricity from renewables by 2021. I have been focused on understanding the post-REPS energy initiatives in an effort to determine the best way SET can partner toward maximum impact in the transition toward a climate responsible and prosperous North Carolina.
The reception from SET’s allies has been encouraging, with (more…)
Tags: climate change
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Thursday, August 7th, 2008
The dollar has strengthened ~6.5% versus the euro over the last few weeks, adding to the reduced demand to lower the global price for oil almost 22% from its record high of early July. While some forecasters think oil can fall to as low as $75 per barrel, some significant resistance will probably emerge to prevent price moves much below $115. Recent news that tropical weather forecasters believe the coming months will be an above average hurricane season certainly keeps a risk premium on top of the Gulf of Mexico oil that we depend on. So, oil prices look to be fickle over the next few months while some bullish price pressure may (more…)
Tags: natural gas prices, Oil
Posted in Daily Recap, Natural Gas, Oil | No Comments »
Wednesday, August 6th, 2008
Today was a great day, and a microcosm of how I think we can succeed in our mitigation of climate change and energy price increases. The exciting events took place in the Triangle area of my home state of North Carolina, and showed that even for-profit private companies can aim for the greater good at times. I met with fellow part-owners in Greenway Transit, LLC, a company dedicated to bringing sustainable transportation options like pedicabs and biofuel rides to the communities of Chapel Hill/Carrboro and Durham. We then (more…)
Tags: bicycles, climate cooperation, Dell, Oil
Posted in bicycles, Climate Change, Daily Recap, Oil | No Comments »
Monday, August 4th, 2008
As McCain was winning over voters by pretending that opening offshore oil to drilling would reduce oil prices significantly within the next few years, Obama had to do something louder than encouraging people to drive more efficient vehicles. Unfortunately, due to Bush’s catastrophic lack of fiscal responsibility, the Presidential candidates can only do things that cost nothing or completely pay for themselves. So, Obama’s new support for a release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) comes as little surprise. But now is a good time to debate the merits of such a plan… (more…)
Tags: Obama, Oil, Russia, SPR release
Posted in Daily Recap, Oil | 1 Comment »
Friday, August 1st, 2008
As some prices ease over the last fortnight or so, it’s important to maintain perspective on current prices. Though our weak economy (with today’s jump in unemployment to 5.7% and persistent inflation) is benefitting from the 10+% reduction in spot prices, looking at today’s prices compared to last year keeps one’s eyebrows raised. It also shows society may have some serious shifts ahead without a further rise in price. Short-term demand reduction is often not as substantial as (more…)
Tags: Coal, energy prices, Natural Gas, Oil
Posted in Coal, Daily Recap, Natural Gas, Oil | No Comments »