As the most fuel-intense travel method, flying is increasing in cost faster than road and rail. So, the skyrocketing price of oil is having a huge impact on the industry. Twenty four airlines have filed for bankruptcy in just the past six months, and a recent report by the institutions Airline Forecast and the Business Travel Coalition predicts much more contraction to the tune of “catastrophe.”
If prices stay at current levels between $130 and $140 per barrel, the report predicts an additional cost for US airlines of $30 billion in 2008. Recent changes in air travel including fees for checked baggage, current fuel surcharges, and charging for drinks and food will only raise a few billion dollars, leaving a huge mismatch between higher costs and revenue. They add that if predictions of $200 oil come true, airline service could contract up to 35% in the near future.
This contraction in airline travel will mean a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, but to prevent losses in standard of living we will have to help provide more fuel efficient travel methods and improve communication technology so that long distance face to face meetings can be reduced. The US House took a step in the right direction when they responded to above-$4 per gallon fuel with a $15 billion allocation to Amtrak. A transition to independence from foreign oil and climate responsibility will require an acceleration of investment into the most efficient infrastructure possible: sending federal dollars to rail, incentives for the Big 3 automakers to lead the plug-in hybrid electric vehicle revolution and the construction of safe sidewalks and bike lanes rather than trying to expand an airport that may actually see future reduction in traffic in the years ahead.